TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,408,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,307,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,408,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c606,144$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,348.338610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes2c452,149$11,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,135.862524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c294,131$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,214.8456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c165,007$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eda…51babacked Yes1c119,957$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+118.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c119,898$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.18200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8005…d004backed Yes1c114,961$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.36520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c100,646$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.32430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb63…9097backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c94,191$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.263810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c90,287$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.69180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes0c81,737$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c76,000$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1838817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9abe…70b7backed Yes2c73,135$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes3c69,467$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c60,000$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83619119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes2c58,026$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1361910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Yes2c57,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df0…e335backed Yes2c52,329$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes2c50,333$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf2…0238backed Yes2c49,063$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c48,989$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes2c48,502$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.981225%3 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cb…2516backed Yes1c47,570$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6812213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes1c47,277$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.075433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c45,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes2c42,203$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes2c39,000$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7152850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1267…54a0backed Yes0c37,805$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x414a…e49bbacked Yes0c36,680$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3199…fdf3backed Yes2c35,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5252817.9%5 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+120.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c33,954$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.532218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba8…428cbacked Yes0c33,467$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf59…8db0backed Yes3c33,455$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a8…5408backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa500…d0a2backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef3…ec32backed Yes0c32,200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.851414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…c66fbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c29,000$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcd…313dbacked Yes2c25,644$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.76580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+111.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7771…1407backed Yes0c24,867$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.571118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf453…2547backed Yes2c24,770$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.81216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x393a…52b7backed Yes1c22,921$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c22,222$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc30…e5ddbacked Yes2c22,185$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes1c20,892$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.553315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c20,325$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.13684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c20,067$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7cc…1733backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-86%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9586…8320backed Yes1c19,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca7…98d1backed Yes2c18,900$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x830d…8b54backed Yes3c17,990$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes2c17,758$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.95280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bb…dddbbacked Yes2c16,465$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes2c15,991$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284205%1 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+257%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes1c15,959$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.552540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55ca…7eddbacked Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes3c14,863$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+221.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes2c14,123$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.25137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes4c13,536$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.2117111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bd…45e9backed Yes3c13,206$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0b…0874backed Yes1c13,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881838.9%7 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes2c12,924$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.83440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes2c12,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0b…883bbacked Yes4c12,423$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes2c12,356$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005234.6%18 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes1c12,326$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9922927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes2c12,099$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.242329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes2c11,766$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.38922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2747…8d20backed Yes0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes1c11,289$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes2c11,207$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.027311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c11,121$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes2c11,065$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.633917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes2c11,026$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.872512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9090…a374backed Yes2c10,968$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc948…59b7backed Yes2c10,811$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes3c10,565$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes2c10,517$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.381216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1728…98b1backed Yes0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce7…ea15backed Yes3c10,461$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes2c10,175$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1668920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes2c9,934$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004146.3%19 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd143…3365backed Yes1c9,731$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes2c9,525$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…1d4bbacked Yes0c9,393$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes2c9,379$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ab…7b2abacked Yes2c9,317$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfac4…448dbacked Yes4c9,250$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b4…fd80backed Yes2c9,197$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210190%0 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47df…2117backed Yes3c9,144$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde37…b2cdbacked Yes3c9,067$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.361030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes4c8,990$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0a…5d82backed Yes1c8,889$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes2c8,862$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.791010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.