Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7faa55b26773289b8253c2cb587a8bf880f083c79963076e524c599d03efda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,408,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,307,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,408,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 606,144$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.33 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 2c | 452,149$11,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,135.86 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 294,131$4,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,214.8 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 2c | 165,007$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…51babacked Yes | 1c | 119,957$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 119,898$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.18 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…d004backed Yes | 1c | 114,961$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 100,646$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.32 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 94,191$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.26 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 90,287$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.69 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 81,737$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 76,000$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…70b7backed Yes | 2c | 73,135$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 3c | 69,467$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 60,000$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 58,026$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 2c | 57,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…e335backed Yes | 2c | 52,329$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 2c | 50,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf2…0238backed Yes | 2c | 49,063$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 48,989$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 2c | 48,502$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…2516backed Yes | 1c | 47,570$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 1c | 47,277$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.07 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 2c | 42,203$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.33 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 2c | 39,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…54a0backed Yes | 0c | 37,805$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…e49bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,680$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 2c | 35,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 1c | 33,954$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.53 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba8…428cbacked Yes | 0c | 33,467$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…8db0backed Yes | 3c | 33,455$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…5408backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…d0a2backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…ec32backed Yes | 0c | 32,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…c66fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 29,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…313dbacked Yes | 2c | 25,644$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…1407backed Yes | 0c | 24,867$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 2c | 24,770$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393a…52b7backed Yes | 1c | 22,921$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 22,222$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc30…e5ddbacked Yes | 2c | 22,185$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 1c | 20,892$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 20,325$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.13 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 20,067$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…1733backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…8320backed Yes | 1c | 19,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…98d1backed Yes | 2c | 18,900$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…8b54backed Yes | 3c | 17,990$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,758$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.95 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…dddbbacked Yes | 2c | 16,465$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 2c | 15,991$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes | 1c | 15,959$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…7eddbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 3c | 14,863$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes | 2c | 14,123$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 4c | 13,536$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.21 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…45e9backed Yes | 3c | 13,206$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 2c | 12,924$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.83 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…883bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,423$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 2c | 12,356$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 1c | 12,326$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 12,099$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.2 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,766$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 0c | 11,667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 1c | 11,289$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 2c | 11,207$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 11,121$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 2c | 11,065$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.63 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 11,026$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9090…a374backed Yes | 2c | 10,968$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…59b7backed Yes | 2c | 10,811$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 3c | 10,565$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,517$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1728…98b1backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…ea15backed Yes | 3c | 10,461$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,175$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,934$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…3365backed Yes | 1c | 9,731$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,525$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…1d4bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,393$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 2c | 9,379$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…7b2abacked Yes | 2c | 9,317$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…448dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,250$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…fd80backed Yes | 2c | 9,197$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…2117backed Yes | 3c | 9,144$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…b2cdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,067$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 4c | 8,990$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…5d82backed Yes | 1c | 8,889$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…56a5backed Yes | 2c | 8,862$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.