TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,322,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,416,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,322,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,543 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No56c399,763$225,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225,577.6714821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes51c195,928$99,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,011.113764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No48c99,001$47,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,900.437732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes44c86,869$38,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,771.112634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No50c62,407$30,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,892.193933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Yes52c55,000$28,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,349.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes45c52,783$23,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,912.135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c48,931$23,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,185.4764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes49c41,005$19,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,016.0910150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd628…43c1backed No48c40,550$19,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,482.422955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed No61c37,707$22,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,861.142166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes28c36,055$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,054.672231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes50c35,003$17,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,375.7814129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes49c33,593$16,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,034.065437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes51c33,477$17,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,347.248125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc43…1540backed Yes62c30,468$18,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,555.983467.6%23 W · 11 L+8.8wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+108.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes42c29,525$12,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,043.6710435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No69c28,004$19,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,453.9226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes45c26,472$11,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,512.7412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes41c25,977$10,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,379.9337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1efc…4fc9backed Yes39c25,765$10,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,763.061020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cb…e25fbacked Yes32c22,152$7,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,060.844100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+161.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No54c21,952$11,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,913.493141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f5…16e6backed Yes39c20,451$7,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,545.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes29c20,310$5,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,477.979736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No72c20,301$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,600.061346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes38c20,020$7,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,457.9511842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes48c19,856$9,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,228.811838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed No64c19,458$12,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,539.052650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No50c18,344$9,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,158.5517530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No50c17,909$8,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,880.1431649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes49c17,239$8,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,856.5811844.1%52 W · 66 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes63c17,146$10,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,380.9118338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5649…5415backed Yes50c16,505$8,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,269.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No46c16,358$7,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,586.862128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No49c15,991$7,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,812.734665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes39c15,385$6,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,325.371788.2%15 W · 2 L+10.6wins+0.62per pick26cpaid+259.4%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes46c15,120$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,204.9314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes45c15,069$6,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,303.57032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ea…15cdbacked Yes54c14,875$7,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,877.562665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d1…3c94backed Yes48c14,473$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e8…1941backed Yes44c13,946$6,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,756.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab0c…2ca3backed Yes48c13,740$6,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,174.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes51c13,603$6,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.111910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No49c13,415$6,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,540.553050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc86e…3211backed No54c12,500$6,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,723.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes54c12,358$6,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,631.648538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa584…28e5backed No70c12,000$8,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,429.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes54c11,981$6,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,511.125431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes53c11,747$6,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,487.054643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes47c11,486$5,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,067.119829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes37c11,399$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,214.6216125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb082…f55ebacked No69c11,120$7,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,633.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe04…3c60backed No47c11,032$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,213.923043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No55c10,982$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.152642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes51c10,513$5,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,194.749441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes55c10,339$5,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,674.17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes33c10,263$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,888.263770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes32c10,007$3,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,795.315158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No69c10,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,899.994465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes48c9,989$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,189.344060%24 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcbc…6ad6backed Yes50c9,971$4,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,997.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes41c9,954$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.821566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes30c9,859$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,863.672245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076a…d67abacked Yes48c9,649$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.391050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+78.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes46c9,522$4,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,144.7421521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes44c9,432$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,251.576825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No47c9,314$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.322941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No41c8,945$3,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,641.791833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c8,162$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.915071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes56c8,132$4,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.045642.9%24 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed No50c8,056$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes36c7,801$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,018.964100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes45c7,401$3,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.246134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed No48c7,381$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No56c7,312$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,072.0228750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No47c7,238$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.219531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes35c7,145$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,658.7642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf6e…d642backed Yes26c7,047$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,214.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf837…14ddbacked Yes55c7,000$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No64c7,000$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,469.978036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca54…f9e6backed Yes45c6,911$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,811.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa268…d60bbacked Yes43c6,901$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,900.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid+28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Yes51c6,683$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.674040%16 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed No55c6,496$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.161118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-67.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12b8…479cbacked Yes46c6,356$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,410.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb782…3160backed Yes50c6,065$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49c…481bbacked Yes54c6,003$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.231181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+68.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No66c6,000$3,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9802729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes28c5,966$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,304.885040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb710…6639backed Yes51c5,872$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,875.163528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No44c5,735$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.056127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes51c5,659$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.7110043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed Yes52c5,637$2,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.774537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0afc…30b2backed Yes36c5,544$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick38cpaid+136.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No48c5,528$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,680.373240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes38c5,501$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.6615232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c5,439$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442.4140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0859…65d9backed Yes37c5,415$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,415.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.