TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,053,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,200,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 794 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2084…2175backed No43c172,586$74,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,318.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…e602backed Yes37c57,647$21,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,316.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes59c50,835$30,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,832.026737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13d…e84cbacked Yes39c27,945$10,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,085.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef8e…d9edbacked No60c25,121$14,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,981.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes43c22,476$9,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,700.91926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes42c20,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6002853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed No69c18,510$12,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,809.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes58c18,140$10,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,663.265843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb005…1c3ebacked Yes59c16,897$9,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,908.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d3…0abbbacked No46c14,985$6,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,84320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes64c13,302$8,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,792.652763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No53c13,259$7,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,079.83941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes49c11,803$5,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,032.237238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd01b…a7c4backed No59c11,617$6,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,812.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e2e…863fbacked Yes27c10,740$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,840.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed No29c10,730$3,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…825ebacked No12c10,663$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e4…a2e8backed No14c10,184$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes39c10,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0502040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No30c9,859$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No34c9,552$3,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,246.24634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes58c8,852$5,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.514250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No49c8,790$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.471450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ce…07adbacked No45c8,028$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Yes17c7,581$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,256.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+364.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No27c7,447$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.641330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Yes63c7,323$4,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,709.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9179…4096backed No5c7,255$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ef…8d53backed Yes63c6,987$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…bdb0backed No45c6,863$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed Yes71c5,878$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c5,792$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.6340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes60c5,663$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.661861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked No55c5,338$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.95520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No33c4,873$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-81.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes62c4,580$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.041315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…ac50backed No54c4,535$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes58c4,315$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.295735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc80…25b8backed Yes67c4,307$2,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+160.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…7c58backed No45c4,287$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…a6c3backed No52c4,197$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x568f…00a7backed No73c4,025$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No40c4,004$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.298543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No51c3,934$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.496716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d4…25a2backed No73c3,783$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No12c3,475$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.9918311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…a1ebbacked No46c3,459$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d88…81a0backed No61c3,437$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…2deebacked No45c3,266$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes73c3,178$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ca…523fbacked No51c3,112$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No46c3,005$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.215547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes66c3,001$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.872774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed No60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes70c2,998$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94cf…d339backed Yes65c2,982$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes66c2,975$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No33c2,962$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.822025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9a…2184backed No73c2,932$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab59…8db3backed No70c2,856$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bac…8684backed Yes63c2,854$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…a907backed No49c2,820$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes71c2,752$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked No57c2,724$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…82fbbacked Yes57c2,637$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No24c2,578$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.447219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes71c2,571$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.747219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes76c2,560$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc6…1fc1backed Yes61c2,531$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.727100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes55c2,508$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.052133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c2,461$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.5320544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfa…e167backed Yes48c2,400$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes73c2,380$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.711850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1cb…85eebacked Yes61c2,376$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c7…01ddbacked No32c2,358$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.881428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No45c2,352$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.782030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b8…ac6ebacked No59c2,309$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes63c2,253$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.341241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed No43c2,235$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes57c2,202$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.332934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No30c2,108$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.441010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No55c2,104$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.932352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes54c2,101$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.077946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No36c2,081$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.292433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes42c2,071$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.224037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2daa…c8c7backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1207948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No36c1,960$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.119632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No7c1,947$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac28…00e4backed No28c1,928$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes79c1,908$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.154850%24 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa569…96ecbacked No74c1,900$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4938…4d58backed No49c1,899$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.74955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca7…f593backed No51c1,886$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes57c1,853$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.512642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No54c1,849$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.952055%11 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes45c1,838$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.081030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b4…fd44backed Yes55c1,801$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.