TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,086,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,086,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,086,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x373d…46f5backed Yes10c46,267$4,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No66c39,103$25,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,394.17139.4%28 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf386…f22cbacked No48c38,427$18,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,982.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8893…ae72backed Yes52c38,427$19,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,982.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8584…a750backed Yes43c26,915$11,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,440.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed Yes63c23,191$14,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,624.491145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…e84cbacked Yes11c20,021$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c19,711$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.5119011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfa…e167backed Yes9c17,037$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No63c16,913$10,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1941450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb005…1c3ebacked Yes12c16,178$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes10c15,790$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.647219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c14,274$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.42560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead4…af67backed Yes10c13,518$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86e…efd7backed Yes17c12,590$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No78c12,518$9,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.068864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e13…9eb9backed Yes6c11,292$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…8d53backed Yes12c9,982$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes4c9,886$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.691030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes7c9,586$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.78634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes11c9,368$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.94233.3%14 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes10c9,100$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.515843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes39c9,095$3,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c8,900$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes53c8,183$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.121910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6799…87cbbacked Yes14c8,118$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c31…95e9backed Yes31c7,597$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes26c7,356$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.446328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes17c7,355$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.555632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d09…dd55backed No74c6,576$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00a2…1674backed Yes9c6,433$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes9c6,372$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.541315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e41…5932backed Yes17c6,355$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes9c6,077$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No63c5,657$3,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.54683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No77c4,925$3,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x944f…1d2bbacked Yes12c4,240$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…3186backed Yes0c4,102$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c3,788$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.722110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No42c3,721$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.27944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1cb…85eebacked Yes10c3,622$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No34c3,518$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.131838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…a2c4backed No69c3,477$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c5f…55ccbacked Yes22c3,345$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes20c3,260$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.93718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes6c3,199$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.627238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes13c3,079$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.031435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38bd…4300backed Yes18c3,068$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No47c3,009$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.34966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+83.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No57c2,863$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.6826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c46…eb52backed No76c2,820$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No42c2,760$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes6c2,727$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.69119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7799…ad20backed Yes7c2,700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.91833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes1c2,653$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce82…774dbacked Yes8c2,610$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes17c2,560$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No79c2,539$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2637…cb97backed Yes54c2,511$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No75c2,469$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.591631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes29c2,443$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.325735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93a…6b34backed Yes6c2,395$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.75110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes27c2,249$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.973514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No35c2,156$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.723525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes3c2,014$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.773212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed No48c2,000$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.921020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes18c2,000$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0edd…2065backed No47c1,956$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x680d…98b8backed Yes14c1,863$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f6…009fbacked Yes34c1,750$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…7529backed Yes6c1,671$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed No57c1,657$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes22c1,656$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.163043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf825…8816backed Yes21c1,652$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes19c1,612$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.673438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed No80c1,586$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…67b3backed Yes11c1,560$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes60c1,553$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.9911030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No24c1,521$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.589435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b42…22abbacked No40c1,509$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes7c1,493$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No37c1,475$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.281816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fb…96cfbacked Yes34c1,472$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+148.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes9c1,456$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No76c1,434$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.161010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-86.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes9c1,373$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.790%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b2e…b2fabacked Yes68c1,355$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes11c1,338$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.521435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes10c1,326$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed No75c1,299$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.621266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes9c1,263$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.782626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed No42c1,192$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa324…e917backed Yes4c1,181$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes12c1,112$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+130.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No51c1,100$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.812142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed No61c1,100$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643c…72cdbacked No75c1,087$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fe…ede5backed Yes27c1,064$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.21837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.