TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,177,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,886,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,177,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 771 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f8d…6f61backed No0c771,730$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a5…e5f0backed No0c704,119$2,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…6706backed No0c683,311$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f1…ce98backed No0c501,584$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453b…5eccbacked No0c307,714$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf865…5a27backed No0c270,058$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9179…4096backed No0c259,718$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb779…2fc0backed No0c250,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…588cbacked No0c240,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed No4c203,525$8,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,797.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x354b…7549backed No0c201,000$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2084…2175backed No25c174,080$43,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,623.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…c5efbacked No0c153,725$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca0…4a34backed No1c147,024$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…2febbacked No0c130,743$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.66520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a71…d71dbacked No0c125,140$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.171136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfca7…52e3backed No0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x074d…0198backed No0c112,870$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe772…b926backed No0c104,599$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3304…4d82backed No0c103,250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cc…21b8backed No0c103,000$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3add…9844backed No0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…d867backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a9…52b6backed No0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No0c94,047$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e76…c23fbacked No0c87,066$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e63…63efbacked No0c76,740$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7582…2497backed No0c76,600$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbafd…42a8backed No0c75,477$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa2c…c5aebacked No0c75,250$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked No0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…4084backed No0c72,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0448…8738backed No0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e95…132dbacked No0c59,020$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412c…7797backed No0c57,755$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd278…f852backed No0c57,515$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e8f…613ebacked No0c56,920$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de6…3832backed No0c55,245$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…9a32backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d5…df5fbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b8…2bcdbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7842backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb005…1c3ebacked No0c49,837$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…47d8backed No1c47,419$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6c…be82backed No0c46,687$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8e…d9edbacked No10c46,616$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,444.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4f…316fbacked No0c44,145$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cbd…3d51backed No0c43,651$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2d…beaebacked No0c43,122$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebd…a036backed No0c39,685$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…825ebacked No2c38,973$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes77c36,480$28,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,212.066737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc029…0533backed No0c35,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4663…ad6bbacked No0c34,950$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef9…bdafbacked No0c34,380$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12e…760bbacked No0c33,761$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ff…3d33backed No0c33,665$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907b…e4bbbacked No0c32,785$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52cf…946abacked No0c32,247$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…8397backed No1c31,403$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47d4…f594backed No0c30,403$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…7cb5backed No0c30,042$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…40c0backed No0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2763…62eabacked No0c29,315$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab59…8db3backed No9c28,950$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3f…bcfabacked No1c25,300$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4807…9be5backed No0c25,020$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…325dbacked No0c25,004$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21bb…3c5ebacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39f…7170backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14b…3a6ebacked No0c24,451$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f1…398bbacked No0c24,068$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb5…de00backed No0c23,710$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a8…8edebacked No0c22,008$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f83…d53cbacked No0c21,310$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No0c21,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes70c20,345$14,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,103.911338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…17cfbacked No1c20,102$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…c675backed No0c20,040$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3edf…facdbacked No0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7395…8752backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6db…a094backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d3…0abbbacked No0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff3…a605backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…8cfdbacked No0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5444…9a76backed No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a7…e3e0backed No0c19,945$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…a2e8backed No1c19,905$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc6…1fc1backed Yes65c19,848$12,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,040.377100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed24…f0b1backed No0c19,742$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef13…7d1cbacked No0c19,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x826e…a935backed No0c18,635$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes71c18,107$12,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,221.185843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No0c18,033$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x915a…8600backed No0c18,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72b…077bbacked No0c17,758$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No38c17,188$6,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,543.623941%16 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x934f…8f63backed No1c16,671$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…12aebacked No0c16,667$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.