Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf335cc3103bdc40edc68be074c7a9debc9d9c47845024f728cb76875b29e0a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,753$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 2c | 8,696$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…fd81backed No | 71c | 6,000$4,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…3684backed Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…f400backed Yes | 26c | 3,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…a24cbacked No | 74c | 3,500$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…c91fbacked No | 76c | 3,010$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…6617backed Yes | 24c | 3,010$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 2,358$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.6 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 61c | 2,206$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.79 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 52c | 1,677$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.98 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…88e4backed No | 52c | 1,624$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…56b9backed Yes | 33c | 1,514$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,485$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 25c | 1,377$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.81 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,131$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,040$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c3…954abacked No | 79c | 1,028$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 67c | 1,021$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 47c | 999.98$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…fee6backed Yes | 75c | 998.66$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 75c | 963.83$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 949.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 937.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0c…00f4backed Yes | 10c | 932.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 905.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 12c | 854.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 791.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 23c | 754.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 66c | 743.07$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 724.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.62 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 709.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 619.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 616.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ef61backed Yes | 58c | 595.16$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…ada4backed Yes | 65c | 539.96$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 30c | 496.91$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.93 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…1031backed Yes | 53c | 491.33$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 29c | 467.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 51c | 464.44$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.64 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…760dbacked Yes | 32c | 461.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…6365backed Yes | 3c | 447.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 34c | 444.89$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…4a76backed No | 77c | 444.54$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 440.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 432.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 30c | 431.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 408.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.81 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2273backed Yes | 12c | 404.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 399.7$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 44c | 389$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 57c | 377.97$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 46c | 373.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 43c | 367.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 25c | 358.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 78c | 355.63$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 30c | 354.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 28c | 352.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked No | 78c | 319.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 26c | 293.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.54 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 69c | 290.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed No | 56c | 287.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 71c | 282.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 281.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 75c | 269.49$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 257.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 60c | 256.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 20c | 252.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…60b7backed Yes | 62c | 241.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 36c | 232.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 39c | 226.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed No | 52c | 223.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6f…a0a6backed Yes | 67c | 219.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 40c | 213.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…73fdbacked No | 72c | 211.72$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 20c | 208.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 20c | 204.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 50c | 201.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…8320backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…2f47backed No | 56c | 195.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 51c | 195.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 53c | 189.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b1…f14cbacked No | 77c | 188.54$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…bfdcbacked No | 80c | 187.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…8afcbacked No | 54c | 185.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 30c | 183.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked No | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 53c | 179.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…b640backed No | 62c | 178.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 22c | 177.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 22c | 176.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 30c | 175.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 58c | 172.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 37c | 172.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 62c | 170$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.