Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880ca8e1e61be2cf4318203761216cc285b139beeb2ee3b471ef3d0127e891a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938a…6cc6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc9…173fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 76c | 5,942$4,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.97 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…c7eebacked No | 0c | 4,515$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1c…6f16backed No | 1c | 3,332$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…f76fbacked No | 40c | 2,403$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…963bbacked No | 3c | 2,104$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6a…f344backed No | 2c | 2,027$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…8583backed No | 1c | 1,948$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…2dc1backed No | 16c | 1,774$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…5692backed No | 3c | 1,328$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed No | 2c | 1,257$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,046$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 33c | 1,015$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.94 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 50c | 1,007$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 37c | 895.74$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 21c | 813.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 63c | 750.25$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 8c | 750$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3ec2backed No | 69c | 740.67$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 683.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 74c | 674.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 665.17$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 37c | 606.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…ebc4backed No | 57c | 586.08$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…94e7backed No | 67c | 579.93$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 53c | 558.61$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…c6babacked No | 38c | 557.41$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6875…a145backed No | 67c | 535.04$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked No | 19c | 533.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 53c | 532.92$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…5158backed No | 65c | 474.97$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 7c | 450.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 42c | 426.81$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…2845backed No | 13c | 407.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 53c | 379.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 358.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 63c | 354.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 78c | 326.43$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…1e39backed No | 69c | 266.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…302bbacked No | 73c | 261.57$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…552cbacked No | 12c | 259.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…40a1backed Yes | 55c | 254.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 16c | 250.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 43c | 249.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 245.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…527bbacked No | 27c | 242.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…c1e6backed No | 22c | 237.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 228.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 228.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 32c | 222.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.05 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…49b2backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…39f8backed No | 72c | 207.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…63e2backed No | 10c | 201.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -79%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed Yes | 37c | 184.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 14c | 183.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked No | 17c | 180.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…82d3backed No | 48c | 179.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…6b36backed No | 70c | 173.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 58c | 173.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 13c | 167.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed No | 58c | 167.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 162.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 161$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b1…40eebacked No | 12c | 159.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed No | 63c | 159.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…e934backed No | 68c | 158.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…018abacked No | 51c | 156.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…5e4fbacked No | 64c | 155.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 23c | 154.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…de91backed No | 68c | 146.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…cc0abacked No | 58c | 141.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 8c | 140.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…5fb0backed No | 70c | 139.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 72c | 139.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 33c | 138.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 25c | 133.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 33c | 133$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde10…c7cebacked No | 69c | 129.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked No | 56c | 127.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 37c | 126.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…7cd3backed Yes | 32c | 110.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +190.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 77c | 104.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 102.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 32c | 101.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…f8c1backed No | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…8d6cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.