Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400ddb4652a3aef5f03c8aa42a530a940caaf5b6fa5b8428a345db34511c8d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 10,055$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3d…5536backed No | 64c | 7,003$4,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…161abacked Yes | 36c | 7,000$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,443$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.75 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 29c | 4,131$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.08 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 77c | 3,621$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.94 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,057$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 79c | 2,243$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.95 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 3c | 2,027$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,868$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be3…d1b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 27c | 1,650$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.09 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,618$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 25c | 1,483$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.6 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,426$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 17c | 1,369$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,366$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7f…3afbbacked No | 64c | 1,152$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 79c | 1,098$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.08 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,096$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…56b9backed Yes | 46c | 1,094$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 31c | 1,060$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 998.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked No | 70c | 993.16$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 68c | 944.16$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.77 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 934.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 35c | 850.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 50c | 840.19$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.92 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 832.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 73c | 744.02$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…ca30backed Yes | 27c | 729.84$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 32c | 725.42$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…6f6cbacked Yes | 28c | 716.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 74c | 669.99$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 24c | 657.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 51c | 594.11$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 36c | 580.11$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…2d13backed No | 68c | 578.07$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 577.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 29c | 559.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 557.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 25c | 537.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…badcbacked No | 73c | 474.84$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…f424backed No | 73c | 464.42$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked No | 72c | 459.61$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…fee6backed Yes | 11c | 457.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 457.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 24c | 418.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 406.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…60b7backed Yes | 26c | 398.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 42c | 378.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 40c | 378.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked Yes | 22c | 373.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 80c | 368.46$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 23c | 362.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Yes | 41c | 353.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed No | 76c | 348.83$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…8400backed Yes | 36c | 334.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 24c | 331.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 64c | 311.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Yes | 29c | 310.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…17e0backed Yes | 7c | 309.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x595b…9eeabacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 35c | 299.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 74c | 298.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 68c | 293.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 21c | 289.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…9035backed Yes | 17c | 288.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 30c | 282.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 32c | 278.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…88e4backed No | 74c | 269.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 30c | 266.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 64c | 238.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…79aebacked No | 59c | 227.06$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 64c | 215.72$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ef61backed Yes | 24c | 206.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 78c | 200.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…21dabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 189.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…16f6backed No | 53c | 189.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 23c | 177.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…1320backed Yes | 8c | 175.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed No | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…aa43backed Yes | 15c | 168.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…5b63backed No | 77c | 166$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 76c | 165$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 61c | 162.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…0c42backed Yes | 25c | 162.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…6a05backed No | 65c | 156.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 24c | 155.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…7656backed No | 63c | 154.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.