TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,889 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes11c1,229$136 inLost-$136.4340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes5c962.4$49 inLost-$4917128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9359…4aeebacked Yes14c815.08$110 inLost-$110.456622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No69c734.28$506 inWon+$228.2115643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb1…fc21backed No80c648.73$517 inWon+$131.232387%20 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+43.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes42c621.24$258 inLost-$258.053831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c563.88$14 inLost-$13.67306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8e…64a9backed Yes18c495.01$88 inLost-$87.942462.5%15 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+73.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c427.76$21 inLost-$20.724195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost-$506752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes7c300$21 inLost-$2120239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes10c299.95$31 inLost-$30.817934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes7c201.98$14 inLost-$14.420235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed No64c150$96 inWon+$54.56546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes10c144.15$15 inLost-$14.6786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes11c130$14 inLost-$14.310121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf895…7aafbacked Yes11c99.98$11 inLost-$10.89180%0 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes13c85$11 inLost-$10.719534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5438…4d3dbacked No55c30$17 inWon+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.