Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61510e927dea582ab39b14b2d01455e9aebd7bf5fcfc5101db4df230665feea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 77c | 13,624$10,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.34 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,164$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 1c | 4,053$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 41c | 4,034$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.83 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…69e2backed No | 55c | 4,006$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57db…ec9fbacked Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 43c | 3,470$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.86 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 29c | 2,304$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.69 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…6fa6backed No | 1c | 2,016$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 52c | 1,758$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked No | 65c | 1,758$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…70acbacked No | 60c | 1,684$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked No | 26c | 1,648$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.25 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 71c | 1,403$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…5accbacked No | 2c | 1,387$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…9a32backed Yes | 47c | 1,347$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 3c | 1,330$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 13c | 1,258$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 972.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 48c | 877.52$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.57 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed No | 60c | 874.55$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 56c | 870.99$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 44c | 866.45$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.59 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 55c | 858.33$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 832.26$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.07 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 40c | 731.74$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2a…baf3backed No | 42c | 715.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 46c | 685.49$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…a525backed Yes | 68c | 631.19$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 627$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed No | 51c | 581.49$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…d621backed No | 53c | 570.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 49c | 567.8$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed No | 54c | 542.69$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 28c | 505.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.43 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked No | 72c | 501.06$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 34c | 449.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…0c70backed Yes | 55c | 426.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…74ddbacked No | 44c | 385.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…1a38backed No | 59c | 381.96$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 74c | 377$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 24c | 366.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 7c | 318.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…2f47backed No | 60c | 301.67$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 47c | 300$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 297.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…77e3backed No | 31c | 276.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 14c | 275$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 57c | 272.38$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…1facbacked Yes | 73c | 267.3$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…bfa3backed No | 45c | 267.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340e…6672backed No | 38c | 264.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 260.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 67c | 258.46$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 37c | 251$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 42c | 249.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…eb10backed No | 64c | 234.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed No | 50c | 228.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 30c | 220$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…6fabbacked Yes | 46c | 219.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 64c | 206.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…924abacked Yes | 50c | 198.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…3485backed Yes | 77c | 192.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 37c | 190$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 53c | 189.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 15c | 187.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…b5b7backed Yes | 45c | 175.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…fe15backed No | 58c | 175.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 163.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 23c | 160.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 68c | 159.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 59c | 158.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 54c | 154.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 149.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed No | 49c | 143.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…49bfbacked No | 45c | 143.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…e370backed No | 56c | 142.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 38c | 137.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…e474backed No | 60c | 133.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe043…1165backed No | 38c | 127.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…b701backed No | 55c | 127.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…7b60backed No | 63c | 125.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.43per pick | 65cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 64c | 124.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 46c | 122.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 117.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 70c | 113.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…398bbacked Yes | 74c | 111.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682b…2164backed Yes | 73c | 110.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 34c | 105.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 77c | 105.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…e27cbacked No | 76c | 104.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed No | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes | 47c | 102.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…9eecbacked Yes | 59c | 101.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…efc5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.