Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61b0b9c0afd6c5c963972fbeba7080007b2f67842a5805c316cc9d5e39e4b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e04…a19ebacked No | 0c | 26,629$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…7e43backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 74c | 10,700$7,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,865 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 26c | 10,700$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,865 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…3a35backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…c69cbacked No | 0c | 5,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…161abacked Yes | 55c | 4,006$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…995cbacked No | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 73c | 3,625$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.68 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 54c | 1,871$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 10c | 1,679$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 42c | 1,466$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.55 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 15c | 1,100$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 65c | 1,070$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 68c | 1,041$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.17 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked No | 71c | 1,028$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 998.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 18c | 928.63$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 73c | 890.36$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.59 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 49c | 770.49$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.79 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 68c | 764.06$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked No | 6c | 690.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe511…55f3backed No | 65c | 681.5$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 45c | 657.17$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…de26backed No | 66c | 649.78$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 21c | 643.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…2c6ebacked No | 7c | 635.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 21c | 627.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 67c | 595.77$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 77c | 549.06$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 56c | 539.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba3…a811backed Yes | 78c | 516.45$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51a…f978backed No | 41c | 486.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 37c | 485.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.86 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 64c | 477.11$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 51c | 460.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.08 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 16c | 450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 439.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 49c | 424.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 56c | 413.51$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 68c | 408.02$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 47c | 395$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.75 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 392.82$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…20d0backed Yes | 78c | 388.84$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 64c | 388.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 34c | 360.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 39c | 358.47$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 356.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…5e5ebacked Yes | 44c | 351.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…6452backed No | 7c | 348.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +447.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf0…e8c1backed No | 53c | 344.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…be1dbacked No | 47c | 344.42$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…05c1backed Yes | 76c | 329.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 28c | 319.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 19c | 308.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…61bfbacked Yes | 45c | 307.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed No | 50c | 306.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 34c | 300.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed Yes | 57c | 287.75$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 277.48$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…a4dcbacked No | 50c | 271.12$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed No | 24c | 270.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 32c | 269.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 58c | 261.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…8afcbacked No | 61c | 260.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…7b8ebacked Yes | 46c | 258.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8858backed Yes | 46c | 247.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…c00abacked No | 40c | 247.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Yes | 55c | 245.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 64c | 241.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…5702backed Yes | 39c | 240.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…64dabacked Yes | 67c | 239.58$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 23c | 234.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 39c | 232.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 13c | 228$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 37c | 217.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682b…2164backed Yes | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…398bbacked Yes | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…3485backed Yes | 80c | 188.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 27c | 183.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 32c | 181.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 12c | 176.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5875…89c6backed Yes | 57c | 176.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…be31backed Yes | 57c | 174.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…9877backed No | 12c | 172.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed No | 59c | 168.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…66a1backed No | 51c | 167.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…7656backed Yes | 61c | 162.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…60ffbacked No | 59c | 162.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 62c | 160.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 51c | 159.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…413dbacked No | 51c | 156.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked No | 66c | 152.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…1031backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed No | 67c | 149.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked Yes | 44c | 148.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.