Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51c53150bb3004297b190bbd58d9165ebf502e1e2729dab839c2008fba13b2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…6f9bbacked No | 0c | 23,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…7efebacked No | 0c | 21,669$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…82e8backed No | 1c | 18,825$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…dff7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked No | 0c | 9,158$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…cfc0backed No | 1c | 6,440$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…721abacked No | 0c | 4,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…1ca8backed No | 1c | 3,747$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b7…6f2ebacked No | 1c | 3,489$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed No | 3c | 3,207$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…2209backed No | 0c | 2,856$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…c5c1backed No | 1c | 2,680$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 1c | 2,577$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb27…9668backed No | 2c | 2,547$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 52c | 1,950$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.47 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 54c | 1,667$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.83 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…405fbacked No | 5c | 1,437$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…9f4dbacked No | 48c | 1,349$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,221$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 47c | 1,101$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 52c | 1,020$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.18 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…77c1backed No | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 797.98$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.96 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 52c | 777$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 56c | 739.57$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.11 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 638.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 54c | 632.03$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.38 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 28c | 592.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 78c | 586.1$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 54c | 559.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 60c | 556.55$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.51 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 499.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 49c | 499.63$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed No | 44c | 474.34$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 51c | 472.2$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 48c | 426.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 52c | 410.08$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.24 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…40a1backed Yes | 57c | 406.74$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 50c | 401.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…963bbacked No | 63c | 395.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 62c | 387.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…c0e8backed No | 48c | 343.15$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…9497backed No | 45c | 326.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed No | 55c | 312.51$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 54c | 309.95$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 296.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 55c | 294.56$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 43c | 293.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…8e6dbacked No | 49c | 271.47$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…9ec2backed No | 53c | 262.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 53c | 254.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x676a…f69dbacked No | 8c | 247.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…1a38backed No | 48c | 246.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…f0c8backed No | 51c | 243.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…60f9backed No | 44c | 242.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 41c | 242.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…ef78backed No | 50c | 241.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870b…3572backed No | 45c | 240.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…2d2ebacked No | 42c | 236.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…2637backed No | 47c | 228.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe114…d1d5backed No | 46c | 228.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed No | 44c | 227.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21a…32c7backed No | 45c | 223.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…32f0backed No | 45c | 222.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7b…2e17backed No | 46c | 219.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…d519backed No | 7c | 217.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 47c | 207.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…2d37backed No | 46c | 205.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…c5ebbacked No | 50c | 204.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…115cbacked No | 50c | 196.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 51c | 194.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…a519backed No | 47c | 191.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…a39fbacked No | 53c | 189.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 55c | 188.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…ebd2backed No | 54c | 186.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…ff59backed No | 49c | 184.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 55c | 180.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 50c | 178.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 54c | 177.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 47c | 176.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 169.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…d343backed No | 46c | 166.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…2e45backed No | 48c | 165.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 160.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…d4a8backed No | 45c | 156.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 55c | 154.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…2390backed No | 45c | 153.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed No | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…bd83backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…badcbacked No | 40c | 145$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 17c | 140.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 29c | 140.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.