TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f1a…c5eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT5655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.45
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Dbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$9.33
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffsbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group Bbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Bbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.88
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Cbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$28
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Atreides (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffsbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$20.7
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+57.7%+$30.6
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+80.7%+$17.75
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+44.9%+$6.74
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+38.3%+$9.19
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$11.21
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+225.2%+$76.18
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$126.31
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
France vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.8
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$66.77
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$29.05
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.4
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$32.89
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$125.2
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$72.4
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$200
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+35.1%+$11.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.