CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11493ad90e2d891d7cbd5a83c6910ccc264861db164a73c0903ca0ecbfc27287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TheMongolzof Natus Vincere, TheMongolz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccb2…8586backed TheMongolz | 62c | 35,000$21,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,299.98 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 34,079$12,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,949.9 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TheMongolz | 61c | 2,543$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.99 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,395$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,394$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.71 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 809.12$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 727.01$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 172 | 30.8%53 W · 119 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 447 | 43.8%196 W · 251 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 589.78$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.91 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked TheMongolz | 60c | 589.78$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed TheMongolz | 64c | 577.86$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed TheMongolz | 63c | 560.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed TheMongolz | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz | 64c | 500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed TheMongolz | 63c | 405.38$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 330 | 43.3%143 W · 187 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…275ebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 270.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…8465backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 380 | 51.3%195 W · 185 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 236.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 234.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked TheMongolz | 29c | 212.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked TheMongolz | 64c | 196.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed TheMongolz | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 235 | 57.4%135 W · 100 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…f1e3backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…0267backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 116.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed TheMongolz | 63c | 102.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed TheMongolz | 65c | 77.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…c5ebbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 62.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed TheMongolz | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed TheMongolz | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked TheMongolz | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 200 | 52.5%105 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed TheMongolz | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…fc7abacked TheMongolz | 64c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.