TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3a72…fc7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
240
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: College Football, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST4656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+127.3%+$12.93
Magic vs. Clippersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+120.2%+$15.03
Cavaliers vs. Thunderbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.41
Magic vs. Sunsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$49.99
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Spread: Magic (-9.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+69.5%+$9.24
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+138.8%+$33.36
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$145.75
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$63.26
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.45
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+131.4%+$26.12
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+77.1%+$61.66
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.48
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+67.5%+$49.84
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$41.46
Pelicans vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+207.7%+$38.22
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Jazz vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.8%+$19.62
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$26.6
Pelicans vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.51
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+124.4%+$14.74
Nets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$72.11
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$34.21
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$30.81
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT4551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Broncos vs. Falconsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$7.16
Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdownbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+50.7%+$25.36
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.92
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$160.34
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$48.32
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Heads · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+99.6%+$11.44
Will New England face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25.99
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+47.1%+$98.82
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$178.01
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$26.72
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$29.01
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$73.17
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$18.92
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$16.83
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$23.73
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+117.4%+$21.64
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$57.28
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+92.3%+$10.07
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+98.9%+$273.03
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+127.3%+$33.15
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$51.25
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.28
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.26
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+110.4%+$27.83
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.91
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.51
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.46
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$34.46
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$20.55
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$9.29
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.72
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$12.92
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.14
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.61
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.92
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.72
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.6
Mexico vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.98
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$16.62
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$6.57
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$7.97
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+93%+$11.95
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$15.2
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$23.72
Will FC Thun win on 2026-07-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.92
Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)backed Galatasaray SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)backed FK Bodø/Glimt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+61.5%+$30.53
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)backed FK Bodø/Glimt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+138.1%+$16.31
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$15.75
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$66.15
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$36.81
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+256.4%+$73.19
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$360.08
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$24.41
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$71.86
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+148.1%+$16.3
All 15 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$266.15
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$110.29
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+87%+$29.96
Ole Miss vs. Georgiabacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+134.9%+$24.67
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+105.3%+$18.43
Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+92.2%+$24.41
Spread: USC (-6.5)backed TCU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+74.1%+$8.07
Tennessee vs. Illinoisbacked Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$21.08
Pittsburgh vs. East Carolinabacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$23.32
New Mexico vs. Minnesotabacked Minnesota · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+122.2%+$12.42
California vs. Hawaiibacked California · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$31.03
Spread: Oklahoma (-1.5)backed Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+92.3%+$35.86
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michiganbacked Western Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+68.1%+$13.62
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iowa State Cyclones vs. BYU Cougarsbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.92
Connecticut Huskies vs. Villanova Wildcatsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+66.5%+$22.33
Jackson State Tigers vs. Alcorn State Bravesbacked Alcorn State Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+104.9%+$19.7
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Rhode Island Ramsbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$37.35
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Kansas City Roosbacked Kansas City Roos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.38
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-4.5)backed Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+92.3%+$19.36
Florida A&M Rattlers vs. Alabama State Hornets: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.46
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$69.45
South Florida Bulls vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+83.2%+$10.08
Richmond Spiders vs. VCU Rams: O/U 155.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+88.7%+$13.52
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougarsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+93.6%+$10.42
VCU Rams vs. Rhode Island Rams: O/U 147.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+100%+$42.9
All 12 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+165.9%+$19.39
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$37.78
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$39.93
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.96
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14.46
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$80.4
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Playoffsbacked Sinners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$26.67
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+39.6%+$15.12
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Senatorsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$15.8
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$54.98
Red Wings vs. Wildbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$81.59
Golden Knights vs. Bruinsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.69
Rangers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+61.1%+$6.67
Sabres vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Capitals vs. Blackhawksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+76.5%+$14.26
Canucks vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$7.49
Flyers vs. Canucksbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+72.9%+$44.29
Canucks vs. Bruinsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+150%+$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.31
Game Handicap: DNS (-1.5) vs DRX (+1.5)backed DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$24.2
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12.31
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34.97
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked DN Freecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.81
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked Deep Cross Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+90.4%+$90.39
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+78.1%+$75.82
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$35.03
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+86.5%+$202.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$21
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.21
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.63
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-08-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.09
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+89.8%+$31.44
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26%+$15.9
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Wolverhampton Wanderers FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+82.5%+$11.45
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$21.55
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+75.6%+$7.78
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+61%+$55.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$53.49
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+91.8%+$32.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$18.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qairat FK vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$16.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$61.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$28.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-08-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.