TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Darderi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$610,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Cerundolo67c49,323$33,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,257.952,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo47c40,286$18,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,32711,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Cerundolo61c36,748$22,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,382.9552037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo53c34,712$18,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,426.337,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Darderi48c28,518$13,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,722.9897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Darderi16c25,047$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.515644.6%25 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5dc…7cf2backed Cerundolo72c24,898$17,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,913.076564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Darderi22c24,191$5,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,269.122,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo47c19,951$9,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,668.162,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cerundolo71c19,730$13,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,731.428,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Darderi72c17,169$12,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,362.0327063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Cerundolo44c16,300$7,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,120.733834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Cerundolo35c14,255$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,207.7581349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Darderi74c13,633$10,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,094.3626545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Darderi37c13,491$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.5413852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Cerundolo29c12,885$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,145.658343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Cerundolo26c9,236$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,876.6928439.1%111 W · 173 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Cerundolo31c9,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,209.953342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Darderi48c8,387$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.276,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4349…b1d5backed Darderi55c7,562$4,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Darderi57c6,442$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.5199044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91db…26bdbacked Darderi70c6,353$4,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,447.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Cerundolo28c5,965$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,295.0278452.9%415 W · 369 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Darderi57c5,809$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,317.494,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Darderi69c5,670$3,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,918.0333241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Darderi50c5,603$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.416740.3%27 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Cerundolo28c5,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60015952.2%83 W · 76 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f5…63d7backed Cerundolo70c4,976$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Cerundolo50c4,670$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.372,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Darderi58c3,885$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.3627560%165 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Darderi42c3,788$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.891,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Cerundolo29c3,511$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.8916242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Cerundolo28c3,381$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.8325433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Darderi75c3,196$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3881,18762.8%746 W · 441 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Cerundolo33c3,036$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.3655646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Darderi54c2,760$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.544450%22 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Darderi70c2,561$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7983941%16 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Cerundolo60c2,511$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.15563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Darderi69c2,255$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.0655243.3%239 W · 313 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Darderi49c2,222$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.331,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Darderi71c2,189$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.7313464.2%86 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Darderi53c2,091$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.7618439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Darderi60c2,017$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.329541.1%39 W · 56 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Darderi22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44026541.9%111 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Cerundolo29c1,994$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.4222723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ce…99f6backed Darderi52c1,843$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96717936.9%66 W · 113 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Cerundolo57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3941645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Darderi46c1,698$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.566026.7%16 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Cerundolo47c1,653$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.0450364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Darderi46c1,557$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.4649143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Cerundolo27c1,544$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9346649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Cerundolo45c1,492$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.814250%21 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Darderi52c1,462$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cerundolo28c1,436$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.221,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Darderi36c1,428$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.591844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Darderi71c1,421$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.8143051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Darderi73c1,374$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00054450.6%275 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…2a72backed Darderi73c1,364$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.511973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Darderi73c1,200$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.998555.3%47 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Cerundolo32c1,167$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.1747057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6094…e860backed Darderi69c1,159$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Cerundolo28c1,119$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.6347552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b45…d5f4backed Darderi69c1,092$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.63944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Darderi72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Darderi27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Darderi71c984.19$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9963247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Cerundolo27c960$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Darderi11c953.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8554547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Darderi36c929.95$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9221957.1%125 W · 94 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Darderi49c925.77$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.934827.1%13 W · 35 L-6.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-48.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Cerundolo32c908.89$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.3913923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Cerundolo33c874.58$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.3846030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Darderi21c869.92$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6811230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Cerundolo30c856.28$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2731753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Cerundolo59c850.51$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.215565.5%36 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa04e…376abacked Darderi69c811.15$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.691030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cerundolo29c785.98$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.8843042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Cerundolo55c750$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.523847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Cerundolo27c700$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51487135.4%308 W · 563 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Darderi67c675.72$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.2324340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Cerundolo30c674$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.84035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Darderi52c672.33$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9613435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Darderi71c672$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.711435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Cerundolo59c652.22$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.656,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d24…9661backed Darderi55c638.78$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Darderi31c635.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Cerundolo69c629.71$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.932,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Darderi32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Darderi33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Cerundolo6c600$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5642227.3%6 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+199.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Darderi47c595.74$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28099139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc55d…9d2dbacked Cerundolo44c595.63$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.155056%28 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd785…0d7ebacked Cerundolo35c591.52$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1742558.8%250 W · 175 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Darderi47c573.29$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26813356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Cerundolo28c563.22$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.922747.6%108 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Cerundolo38c562.51$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Darderi29c550.89$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.291,38116.4%227 W · 1,154 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo27c536.28$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.737,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313c…61d9backed Darderi70c533.51$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Darderi42c504.45$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0593048.8%454 W · 476 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.