Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36657d0958b4ff686b75a2bfe923d9ec933e7fe346afa4975e0c93aeadc9689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Darderi, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33d…2a72backed Darderi | 53c | 987.14$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Cerundolo | 54c | 644$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.24 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Darderi | 47c | 475.3$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.44 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Cerundolo | 52c | 249.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cerundolo | 47c | 160.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo | 59c | 139.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Darderi | 30c | 129.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cerundolo | 51c | 117$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Darderi | 51c | 97.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Cerundolo | 56c | 90.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 179 | 55.9%100 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Cerundolo | 48c | 78.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Darderi | 46c | 73.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cerundolo | 50c | 71.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Cerundolo | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 47c | 46.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee1…ae99backed Darderi | 54c | 34.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Darderi | 48c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Darderi | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Darderi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano DarderiCerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs DarderiCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.