TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Clippers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,829,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,033,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,829,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Clippers63c240,378$151,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,231.5643542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Magic48c80,664$38,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,329.3620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Clippers53c79,961$42,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,224.595349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Magic38c77,184$29,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,853.985139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Clippers61c75,000$45,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,749.819653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Magic49c70,168$34,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,480.659655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f6…4535backed Magic37c69,420$25,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,716.24355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Magic43c67,135$28,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,318.067240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Magic37c63,608$23,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,0739053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic41c59,521$24,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,934.792,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Clippers56c50,000$28,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,10029055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic39c49,285$19,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,072.8692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b4…13c9backed Clippers53c48,755$26,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,040.061330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Magic47c46,719$21,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,900.1334456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Clippers56c40,417$22,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,641.221,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Clippers62c36,312$22,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,513.759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Magic36c35,632$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,631.999250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Clippers60c34,931$21,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,049.8320947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Magic44c34,155$15,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,063.847035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Clippers61c33,305$20,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,316.0613142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic48c31,000$14,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,12048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Clippers52c30,000$15,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,50021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Clippers61c27,532$16,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,750.3661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53e…1aa3backed Clippers0c25,985$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.986939.1%27 W · 42 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Magic48c25,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.9919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Clippers52c23,970$12,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,551.384235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers54c23,677$12,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,880.031,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Magic39c23,240$9,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,176.416039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic43c21,881$9,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,463.548,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Clippers56c21,366$12,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,002.451,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb42…d373backed Magic47c21,000$9,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,129.942147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic50c20,583$10,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,264.7281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers38c20,411$7,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,717.364,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Clippers52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Magic41c18,994$7,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,195.014348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Clippers52c18,888$9,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,821.7615952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Magic39c18,456$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,206.3651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Magic41c17,065$6,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,136.442343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Magic41c16,982$6,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,089.2938540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic45c16,768$7,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,231.192,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad7…50cfbacked Magic46c16,528$7,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,925.364100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic39c16,184$6,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,872.242,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic42c15,760$6,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,165.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Clippers61c15,379$9,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,380.8987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Clippers52c15,276$7,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,943.4728649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Clippers52c15,275$7,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,94330845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic41c15,067$6,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,842.481,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Clippers55c14,618$8,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,022.3240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Magic42c13,920$5,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,073.628643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic46c13,888$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,488.431445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Clippers54c13,500$7,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,300.7211344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Clippers56c12,510$7,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,005.64057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Clippers55c12,024$6,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,566.5971547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c53…d737backed Clippers55c11,944$6,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,564.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Magic47c11,702$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,202.329043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Magic44c11,551$5,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,463.2711737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Clippers56c11,429$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic42c11,159$4,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,477.033,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc02f…72c4backed Clippers52c11,002$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Magic46c10,926$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,925.717758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef45…1905backed Clippers62c10,862$6,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,710.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Clippers42c10,689$4,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.891414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+370.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Magic40c10,645$4,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,353.6537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Clippers31c10,203$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.832,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Magic41c10,057$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,972.7332540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Magic46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Clippers63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3008944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Magic35c9,994$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,463.3414663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Magic39c9,260$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,646.7161939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2795…fd6bbacked Clippers56c9,189$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd69…e2cebacked Clippers4c9,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic41c8,867$3,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,239.714,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Clippers55c8,688$4,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,778.448543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Clippers54c8,520$4,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600.948352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Magic43c8,355$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.3518553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Clippers60c8,340$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic41c8,269$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,914.373,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Magic46c8,251$3,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.717150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic46c8,160$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.715,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic43c8,139$3,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.353,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Magic50c8,106$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,045.9411436.8%42 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Clippers57c8,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Magic41c7,710$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Clippers57c7,705$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,36020849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Clippers53c7,577$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010334%35 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Magic46c7,174$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,873.9613959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Clippers54c7,063$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,814.2828554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic47c6,977$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,704.9648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Clippers55c6,554$3,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.79440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Magic39c6,497$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,972.915650%28 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Clippers57c6,495$3,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70219136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Magic48c6,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Clippers60c6,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6008052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Magic40c6,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Clippers55c5,973$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28514061.4%86 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Magic46c5,959$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,217.8227163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Clippers56c5,882$3,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,311.3524744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Magic32c5,875$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.913432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Magic46c5,767$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,125.1327251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.