TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Clippers: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,395 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa4a…0502backed Clippers65c1,550$1,015 inLost-$1,0151414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+370.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Magic34c1,500$515 inWon+$9851,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Clippers40c745.05$300 inLost-$30013429.9%40 W · 94 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic62c670.51$414 inWon+$256.2648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Clippers51c502.19$256 inLost-$255.928657%49 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic60c445.05$265 inWon+$1805,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Magic65c389.23$253 inWon+$136.234463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic40c245$98 inWon+$1472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Clippers27c207.41$56 inLost-$5614636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Clippers41c121.95$50 inLost-$5026545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Clippers28c100$28 inLost-$2843246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Magic40c50$20 inWon+$302,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Clippers46c47.83$22 inLost-$228944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Clippers43c34.88$15 inLost-$1513744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Magic62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.269334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Magic40c25$10 inWon+$1597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.