TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Sinners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$523,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$542,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked BetBoom Team56c161,780$90,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,670.3439249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Sinners44c148,390$65,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,287.1921051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed BetBoom Team56c24,068$13,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,590.083961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked BetBoom Team55c21,251$11,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,574.5142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Sinners44c18,888$8,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.7288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Sinners44c13,236$5,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.6111146.8%52 W · 59 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked BetBoom Team56c12,995$7,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,687.8915245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Sinners45c12,222$5,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,477.8426351.3%135 W · 128 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Sinners45c12,026$5,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,390.5212449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed BetBoom Team56c11,971$6,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,326.5472453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed BetBoom Team56c10,293$5,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,537.7241649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed BetBoom Team55c10,228$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.3119645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sinners41c10,135$4,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,167.131,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team54c9,408$5,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,338.863,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Sinners35c7,483$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.4359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Sinners44c7,112$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.2883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Sinners44c6,705$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95020539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Sinners48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.967940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed Sinners17c5,575$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.773630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Sinners43c5,500$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed BetBoom Team56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.1435236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team56c5,032$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.986,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Sinners55c4,313$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.143154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Sinners48c4,190$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Sinners44c4,081$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.231642.1%133 W · 183 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78e0…375bbacked Sinners47c4,014$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.13231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed BetBoom Team66c4,005$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.229647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sinners43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.997055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Sinners51c3,962$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.984548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed BetBoom Team57c3,846$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.8224846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed BetBoom Team62c3,708$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.6517240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team57c3,494$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.4532348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a97…6315backed Sinners25c3,151$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed BetBoom Team62c3,051$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.1446843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Sinners44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3205947.5%28 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed BetBoom Team56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Sinners43c2,800$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20484658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Sinners30c2,548$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Sinners45c2,540$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1434951%25 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BetBoom Team55c2,505$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.5538037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Sinners46c2,407$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.42619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Sinners31c2,346$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.351,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Sinners44c2,231$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.8211252.7%59 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Sinners45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010952.3%57 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BetBoom Team49c2,005$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.2581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed BetBoom Team54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9201533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BetBoom Team55c2,000$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89353746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f5…6092backed Sinners46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sinners38c1,904$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.832,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5781…bbfbbacked Sinners44c1,889$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.071118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-48.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked BetBoom Team75c1,870$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.036264.5%40 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Sinners43c1,763$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.2450833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed BetBoom Team62c1,718$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.5719048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c34…05cfbacked BetBoom Team56c1,708$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afe…aec0backed BetBoom Team50c1,620$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.469058.9%53 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Sinners33c1,531$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2596545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6084…e875backed BetBoom Team55c1,502$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.0110152.5%53 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BetBoom Team52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72096740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Sinners38c1,360$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2111343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…aa6ebacked BetBoom Team56c1,358$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.41757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed BetBoom Team63c1,348$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.9713246.2%61 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked BetBoom Team60c1,326$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.4148948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked BetBoom Team58c1,308$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6649745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team54c1,257$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.361,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Sinners24c1,218$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2497952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team57c1,214$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.782,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0c…9fe7backed BetBoom Team60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked BetBoom Team64c1,140$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.8432930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed BetBoom Team55c1,098$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.8813546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Sinners20c1,095$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5714532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed BetBoom Team52c1,077$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.925250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Sinners47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Sinners47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed BetBoom Team56c1,034$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.4727348.4%132 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Sinners46c1,022$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.819548.4%46 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked BetBoom Team48c1,011$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.3116240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Sinners45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed BetBoom Team55c999.97$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.996046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team54c989.75$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.31,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BetBoom Team58c984.55$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.551,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…5459backed BetBoom Team48c982.67$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.221752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0114…22a6backed BetBoom Team56c968.8$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.522951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf0…f4b7backed Sinners45c920$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e13…391fbacked Sinners44c906.39$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.814247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked BetBoom Team62c899.96$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.281,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16c…d7f4backed BetBoom Team62c850.62$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.913839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Sinners43c776.98$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.150043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed BetBoom Team55c720.78$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7832653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Sinners44c709.93$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3713850%69 W · 69 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Sinners46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32210538.1%40 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc24…c8c4backed BetBoom Team66c694.4$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.552850%14 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Sinners46c681.32$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed BetBoom Team80c631$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3758961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed Sinners26c629.24$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.66830.9%21 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Sinners46c628.87$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.995455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BetBoom Team42c585.72$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.841,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed BetBoom Team54c577.82$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9439851.3%204 W · 194 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BetBoom Team58c577.61$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.6136742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Sinners38c521.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed BetBoom Team47c502.34$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.512450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.