TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Rams (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Rams, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,691,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,708,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,691,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 550 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bears49c1,252,972$612,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640,345.7312055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Bears49c596,819$292,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,377.62025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x80cd…0273backed Rams51c371,071$189,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189,246.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Rams51c203,220$103,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,642.1527454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Rams51c201,692$102,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,863.0919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Rams51c198,538$101,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,116.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rams51c170,879$87,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,815.0919152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Rams51c150,000$76,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,5003737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rams51c149,479$76,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,234.2917454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Rams52c141,648$73,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,296.913050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Rams51c139,613$71,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,202.775648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bears48c128,826$61,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,989.667554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Bears49c92,839$45,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,353.248747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rams52c54,215$28,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,191.853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Bears49c51,375$25,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,201.071662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rams52c44,014$22,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,887.2847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Bears48c43,782$21,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,693.142450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Rams51c41,500$21,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,16516545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Bears50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0001968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Rams52c40,000$20,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,60020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Rams51c38,000$19,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,2502955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Rams52c36,432$18,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,944.6316860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Rams51c30,000$15,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,15035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bears48c24,000$11,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,4803366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Rams51c22,573$11,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,512.089442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rams51c21,451$10,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,940.1931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rams51c21,391$10,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,909.419447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed Rams52c21,154$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rams51c20,732$10,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,600.911,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Bears49c20,408$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Bears49c20,408$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.165658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Rams50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Rams52c20,000$10,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,300837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Rams51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Bears49c19,339$9,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,906.273148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rams47c17,542$8,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,261.3216955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Bears68c17,336$11,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,496.613070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3884…94c5backed Rams51c16,000$8,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,159.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4736…79e8backed Rams51c15,000$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,649.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears48c14,519$6,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,549.9683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f4…efebbacked Rams52c13,422$6,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,972.93825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Rams67c12,500$8,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,3751353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Bears49c12,240$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,242.42850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rams52c12,000$6,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,21051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Bears49c10,367$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,291.663724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rams51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Rams52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ff…16a3backed Rams46c9,031$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.071040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rams52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Rams51c7,630$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90022142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Bears48c7,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Bears48c7,461$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.72988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+69.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Bears49c7,082$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,611.633740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Rams51c6,863$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears54c6,780$3,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.0450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Rams32c6,571$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.2620757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears79c6,468$5,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.331543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Rams52c6,346$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bears49c6,250$3,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rams32c6,231$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.584555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Rams51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Bears69c5,445$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.963619.4%7 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Bears51c5,103$2,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.036639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Bears49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Rams52c5,000$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.181450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bears49c4,317$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.672263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Rams51c4,116$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.352828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.0wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-48%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Bears70c4,007$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bears49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0403847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rams51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Bears49c3,941$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.823342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Rams52c3,878$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.395046%23 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bears49c3,878$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.5520443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bears49c3,684$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.7213756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Rams72c3,584$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Rams44c3,167$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.6528447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Rams52c3,100$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6127346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bears48c3,003$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.839447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Bears50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Rams51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5307152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Rams51c2,922$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010547.6%50 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Bears64c2,705$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.558164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a1b…530abacked Rams52c2,654$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.951145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bears49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27526649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a47…0c54backed Rams52c2,355$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.361154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Rams64c2,319$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.722343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Rams52c2,077$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0802821.4%6 W · 22 L-6.5wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Bears49c2,040$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.42152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Rams51c2,033$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0403256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bears49c2,029$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.579651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Rams51c2,017$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.673148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Rams51c2,012$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.176246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bears50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00017251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Rams51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02018044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Bears50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.30per pick38cpaid-83.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Rams51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Rams51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0714035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Rams51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Rams52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe0a9…bc09backed Rams52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.