NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Bears: 1H O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9598990beb22e771414d9917b71a23b6cb25e7b7b67982a3282cad5a5421617f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0376…1b88backed Under | 57c | 6,939$3,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 46c | 5,422$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 5,272$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.95 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 43c | 5,222$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.58 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 41c | 1,320$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.43 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 44c | 568$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 434.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…7984backed Under | 55c | 413.85$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 43c | 349.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 66c | 304.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 46c | 109.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…c2edbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Under | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Over | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Under | 80c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…49efbacked Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Bears: 1H O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rams (-2.5)Bears won
- Bears Team Total: O/U 27.5Under won
- Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5Over won
- Colston Loveland: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- D'Andre Swift: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Davante Adams: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kyren Williams: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Puka Nacua: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rams vs. BearsRams won
- Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5Under won
- Rome Odunze: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.