NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Rams (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f78f0e67df3619c3184e73c66d471fe2a06d5a5a207501b817cd3cc9e5371c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Rams, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Rams | 52c | 40,031$20,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,816.24 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Rams | 53c | 30,679$16,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,197.78 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bears | 48c | 28,545$13,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,843.33 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bears | 47c | 11,118$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,898.59 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Bears | 47c | 9,999$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.4 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Bears | 48c | 6,679$3,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 48c | 4,672$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.3 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Bears | 48c | 3,328$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Bears | 47c | 3,150$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.5 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears | 49c | 2,878$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.61 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Rams | 52c | 2,298$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Bears | 47c | 1,664$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Bears | 47c | 1,575$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.75 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Rams | 53c | 730$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rams | 52c | 404.08$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.12 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Rams | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bears | 48c | 391$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…3eafbacked Rams | 53c | 320.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Rams | 11c | 299.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Bears | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 51c | 211.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Bears | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Rams | 52c | 198$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Rams | 54c | 186.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Bears | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Bears | 49c | 163.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Bears | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Rams | 54c | 148.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bears | 46c | 145.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Rams | 52c | 137.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Rams | 54c | 128.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Rams | 54c | 111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bears | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Bears | 49c | 102.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Rams | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c37…3fd1backed Rams | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ef…9972backed Rams | 50c | 81.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Rams | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Bears | 47c | 67.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Rams | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…0dd5backed Bears | 48c | 40.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Rams | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Rams | 50c | 35.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…b14cbacked Bears | 47c | 31.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Bears | 47c | 31.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Bears | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Bears | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Bears | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bears | 46c | 25.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rams | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Rams (-2.5)this page
- Bears Team Total: O/U 27.5Under won
- Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5Over won
- Colston Loveland: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- D'Andre Swift: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Davante Adams: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kyren Williams: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Puka Nacua: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rams vs. BearsRams won
- Rams vs. Bears: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5Under won
- Rome Odunze: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.