TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Bruins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bruinsof Golden Knights, Bruins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$914,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$958,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914,907 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf195…8057backed Bruins42c403,111$168,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235,014.125352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Golden Knights57c144,469$82,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,771.3256152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Bruins44c90,000$39,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,399.8567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights58c73,831$43,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,071.961953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights58c41,140$23,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,994.971,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Golden Knights0c30,257$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.076355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Golden Knights59c30,000$17,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,70048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Golden Knights57c25,000$14,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,25022550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Golden Knights57c24,350$13,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,992.5456649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Golden Knights58c20,545$11,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,991.121755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Golden Knights58c18,888$10,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,955.0421850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights58c17,999$10,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,439.321,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Golden Knights55c17,854$9,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,819.4826849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Bruins44c17,653$7,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,962.3915749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights58c15,795$9,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,222.9961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bruins42c15,000$6,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,680.0915431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bruins41c13,483$5,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,892.5247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights55c12,393$6,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,762.421,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Golden Knights59c11,063$6,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,527.4313363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Golden Knights0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Golden Knights57c10,146$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.383647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Golden Knights58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Golden Knights55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.9832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Bruins45c8,505$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,677.749052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights58c8,318$4,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,824.1862951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bruins44c8,000$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Golden Knights56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.988848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights58c7,076$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.0879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Bruins46c6,767$3,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.1811445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Bruins45c6,500$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,574.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Golden Knights58c6,000$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Bruins42c5,114$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.294047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Bruins45c5,090$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.527548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bruins41c5,034$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.1551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Golden Knights54c5,000$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.0713948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Golden Knights55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d13…c3dcbacked Golden Knights55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Bruins42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x212b…92c3backed Golden Knights10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Golden Knights56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2402524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Golden Knights58c3,999$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bruins41c3,902$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.1852050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bruins45c3,888$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.661,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Golden Knights54c3,836$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.931,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Golden Knights57c3,742$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.4745955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights58c3,610$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights56c3,524$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.22,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Golden Knights58c3,434$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.8528251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Bruins42c3,333$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.1425447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Golden Knights8c3,220$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.362222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Bruins44c3,100$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.9925555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Golden Knights59c3,071$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.2893953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Golden Knights58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Golden Knights58c2,889$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.119157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Bruins44c2,764$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.644240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights58c2,669$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.121,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights59c2,542$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights42c2,393$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.981,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Golden Knights1c2,388$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.587450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Bruins46c2,356$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.0148050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights57c2,200$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.5960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Golden Knights16c2,161$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3315238.8%59 W · 93 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Bruins42c2,120$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.611252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Bruins44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12011749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Bruins42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16010056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Golden Knights55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Golden Knights58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Golden Knights57c1,892$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.5135349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Golden Knights1c1,890$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.222504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Golden Knights55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bruins45c1,778$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.7828152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights57c1,775$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.771,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Golden Knights55c1,745$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.6462249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60f…9ea3backed Bruins45c1,674$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.535641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Golden Knights57c1,648$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.671,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights57c1,600$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91243548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Golden Knights55c1,584$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8715855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights21c1,554$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.492,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Golden Knights8c1,513$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6122728.2%64 W · 163 L-17.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bruins43c1,448$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.8222946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Golden Knights57c1,410$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.4516254.9%89 W · 73 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Golden Knights58c1,364$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.6145751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Bruins44c1,341$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.913764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights22c1,302$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.222,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights11c1,247$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Golden Knights11c1,136$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9629412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Golden Knights8c1,112$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Golden Knights58c1,033$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7323754%128 W · 109 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Golden Knights57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bruins41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Golden Knights55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Golden Knights1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Golden Knights57c912.28$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52031848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Golden Knights58c877$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.6684953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Golden Knights8c835.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9254418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Bruins42c830.01$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.47347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Bruins44c829.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.7925045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Bruins44c810.88$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.0914848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Golden Knights60c779.53$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.946058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.