TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Andrey Rublev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Musettiof Musetti, Rublev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$351,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$400,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti64c42,164$27,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,122.738,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…fdffbacked Rublev59c14,295$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Musetti45c12,702$5,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,046.182,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Rublev62c11,274$6,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,964.466432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Rublev51c9,285$4,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,757.9531647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Musetti54c7,558$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.353857.9%22 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Rublev49c6,729$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.3910541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Rublev52c6,696$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.842568%17 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Musetti50c6,343$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.9276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Rublev51c6,332$3,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20628444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Musetti28c6,267$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,531.761020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc64d…c8b7backed Musetti51c6,210$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.58475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Musetti50c6,004$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.072,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Musetti38c5,681$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,495.035851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Rublev6c5,449$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.9410815.7%17 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+248.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rublev42c5,407$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.2611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Musetti49c5,101$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.898060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Musetti64c4,926$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.1358639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Musetti55c3,664$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.294560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Musetti53c3,406$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.418348.2%40 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Musetti51c3,235$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.2913852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev47c3,163$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4801,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Rublev74c3,047$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.9110161.4%62 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Musetti56c3,020$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.2913652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rublev63c2,751$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.387,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Rublev22c2,641$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.4540144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Musetti56c2,490$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.621147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8049…1e6cbacked Musetti33c2,244$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.343033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Rublev52c2,203$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.549264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Rublev49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Musetti48c2,039$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.718047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Rublev50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Rublev49c1,975$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.3812631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Musetti51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7844754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536c…b7d6backed Rublev2c1,885$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rublev40c1,882$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.952,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Rublev45c1,866$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.3229654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rublev39c1,785$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.376,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti50c1,712$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.81,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Musetti55c1,546$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.6411051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti45c1,508$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.9781938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Rublev6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9066949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Rublev52c1,491$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78215862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Musetti28c1,415$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.912627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Musetti35c1,409$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.2962061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Rublev48c1,301$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.1276146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Rublev49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58893055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Rublev50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed Musetti51c1,200$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5937040%28 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Musetti50c1,024$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.636046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…53b3backed Rublev46c1,009$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.247848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Musetti60c1,007$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Musetti48c1,000$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.0615447.4%73 W · 81 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed Rublev71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x710c…892cbacked Rublev50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Rublev50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Rublev7c949.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694513.3%6 W · 39 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+134.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Musetti40c910.75$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.9621655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Musetti47c895.79$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.5422236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Rublev71c856.58$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.22850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421e…81bcbacked Musetti28c852.9$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e13…670bbacked Musetti42c835.37$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.375164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Rublev50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae90…f6c8backed Rublev50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Rublev56c793.46$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.831,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Rublev47c780$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.655143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Rublev38c689.72$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.961,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272b…0a6ebacked Rublev50c668$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3348245.1%37 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Rublev33c649.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Musetti33c636.03$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.2814546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Musetti56c619.55$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.312,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Musetti49c615.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2228726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Musetti50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f31…3e23backed Rublev64c600$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Rublev50c599.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9963247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Musetti56c579.71$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.71,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Musetti52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9219846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Rublev47c573.74$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6625556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Rublev59c553.87$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.692,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Musetti76c528.11$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1136554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Musetti34c509.3$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5239850%199 W · 199 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe30…c4b1backed Rublev6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+325.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Musetti59c499.99$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Musetti51c493.43$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8613844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Musetti38c490.47$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.0312947.3%61 W · 68 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Rublev49c482.47$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.474247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Rublev72c444.44$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rublev48c441.1$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.942,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Musetti37c440.4$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.094,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec7…12a6backed Musetti74c440$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…7102backed Rublev44c426.64$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.341872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Musetti59c423.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.736159%36 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Musetti45c419$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2128451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rublev48c409.06$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4688455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…1fcabacked Rublev72c408.58$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Rublev49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023353.2%124 W · 109 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed Rublev48c407.11$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.99669.8%67 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Rublev74c400$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29617867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Rublev44c395.53$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0527836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Rublev63c393.46$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5647057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.