NFL · resolved market
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed92bac38538b6382291d27052509579e323960b9ce8b3b89d5cbf6c04c10e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 24c | 843$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 76c | 826$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 76c | 722$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 76c | 661$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 24c | 507$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes | 24c | 419$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 24c | 242$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 24c | 215$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 27c | 165.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…ded4backed Yes | 50c | 124.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 76c | 111$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 110.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 87.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 86.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 76c | 71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…9754backed Yes | 39c | 56.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 49c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 31c | 39.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…fc7abacked Yes | 52c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Divisional Round?this page
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.