NFL · resolved market
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c84da7368b4c56637c22d0de42a415772b116f6125bdd2065cc76ea0e61f1a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 48c | 917$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 52c | 775$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 54c | 713$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 45c | 619.48$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 46c | 566$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 52c | 547$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 48c | 541$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 54c | 538$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 48c | 538$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 46c | 525$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 52c | 513$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 54c | 493$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 52c | 472$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 52c | 468$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 46c | 458$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 418$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 46c | 417$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 48c | 413$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 54c | 404$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 54c | 388$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 48c | 382$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 52c | 382$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 48c | 357$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 48c | 296$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 46c | 286$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 54c | 286$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 52c | 283.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked No | 52c | 248$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 48c | 247$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 52c | 247$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 52c | 231$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 46c | 226$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 61c | 223.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 44c | 220.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 46c | 219$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 48c | 191$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 54.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?this page
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Divisional Round?Yes won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.