NFL · resolved market
Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf973ac60267cc53fda2b4106f315b11441693796e3a5c2fc223ab29902889b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f84…800bbacked Yes | 7c | 866$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 28c | 637.49$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 12c | 636$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 12c | 486$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 12c | 389$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 12c | 309$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 12c | 305$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes | 12c | 217$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 12c | 196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 12c | 162$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 47.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…1e58backed Yes | 26c | 39.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?this page
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Divisional Round?Yes won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.