TailMyPicks

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College Football · resolved market

New Mexico vs. Minnesota

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesotaof New Mexico, Minnesota
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,583,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,777,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,583,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 699 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked New Mexico49c750,000$371,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,028.374163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Minnesota52c200,000$104,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota50c144,637$72,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,926.792,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Minnesota52c115,281$59,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,687.5693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Minnesota54c112,390$60,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,701.752759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed New Mexico48c108,046$51,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,571.473275%24 W · 8 L+7.6wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Minnesota49c101,750$50,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,680.5758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked New Mexico18c69,282$12,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,36324229.3%71 W · 171 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed New Mexico48c59,309$28,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,368.252737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Minnesota52c56,591$29,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,163.814738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Minnesota51c55,025$27,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,139.5210848.1%52 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed New Mexico50c54,162$26,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,850.2538450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Minnesota42c50,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,999.97850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Minnesota61c45,942$27,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,094.3213933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed New Mexico54c36,066$19,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,368.0916234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed New Mexico46c33,000$15,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,179.9710046%46 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked New Mexico0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302722.2%6 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick2cpaid+841.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Minnesota50c22,838$11,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,314.7164841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Minnesota60c22,720$13,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,053.894841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Minnesota50c22,042$11,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,020.8552641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9727…335cbacked New Mexico29c21,220$6,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,158.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed New Mexico47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,399.969540%38 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Minnesota50c18,824$9,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,355.4748546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed New Mexico15c17,038$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.1520553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Minnesota54c16,726$9,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,694.074151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Minnesota59c15,614$9,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,453.78785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+58%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New Mexico47c15,000$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,05027246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d97…f263backed Minnesota54c14,539$7,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,698.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Minnesota54c14,392$7,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,559.253951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed New Mexico41c14,109$5,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.735750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New Mexico30c13,955$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,133.5862843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Minnesota60c13,951$8,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,645.5829351.9%152 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Minnesota53c11,382$6,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,349.733857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed New Mexico48c11,131$5,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,290.881926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed New Mexico46c10,455$4,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,768.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked New Mexico46c10,012$4,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,606.443345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Minnesota53c10,000$5,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,73019849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a1…7ae9backed Minnesota53c9,188$4,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,353.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed New Mexico41c8,827$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,605.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Minnesota53c8,216$4,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,876.3811849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Minnesota52c8,004$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,842.1539954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Minnesota53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.992650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Minnesota53c7,530$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.192142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed New Mexico41c7,486$3,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.521637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Minnesota47c6,970$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,694.385152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed New Mexico42c6,771$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.511040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed New Mexico38c6,743$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.993342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Minnesota52c6,666$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.5122750.7%115 W · 112 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed New Mexico53c6,504$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,442.412842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed New Mexico2c6,500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1548629.1%25 W · 61 L+15.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+361.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed New Mexico47c6,400$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed New Mexico53c6,200$3,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,281.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota52c6,090$3,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.2540244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Minnesota60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4007846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Minnesota52c5,462$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.8411541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Minnesota60c5,013$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.064100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Minnesota56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked New Mexico47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Minnesota53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Minnesota51c4,937$2,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.4865945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Minnesota59c4,930$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Minnesota53c4,470$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.913151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed New Mexico34c4,466$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.686243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Minnesota52c4,397$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed New Mexico1c4,300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29944.4%4 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick8cpaid+385.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed New Mexico17c4,228$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.231136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico28c4,094$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.2963243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Minnesota46c4,053$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.012751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed New Mexico38c4,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5103336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked New Mexico47c3,677$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.962035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed New Mexico28c3,615$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.4519842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Minnesota50c3,484$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.3640541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed New Mexico44c3,432$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.819043.2%82 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked New Mexico47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52c9…7f71backed New Mexico34c3,079$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked New Mexico36c3,020$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.349124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b2…8b09backed New Mexico1c3,018$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked New Mexico24c3,000$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.52630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Minnesota52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Minnesota53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Minnesota52c2,878$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.91752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Minnesota42c2,841$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Minnesota59c2,707$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.766358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked New Mexico46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.964643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Minnesota56c2,476$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.0254243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b8…7c08backed New Mexico47c2,392$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b45…c0fbbacked Minnesota54c2,379$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a83…17b5backed New Mexico47c2,379$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63e…722ebacked New Mexico46c2,354$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b70…046dbacked New Mexico47c2,349$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a7…dcd3backed Minnesota54c2,349$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New Mexico20c2,326$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.842857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed New Mexico47c2,325$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5474…9559backed Minnesota53c2,309$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0933…015dbacked Minnesota54c2,299$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dda…c46cbacked New Mexico47c2,299$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…7cc3backed Minnesota54c2,249$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1cb…25edbacked New Mexico47c2,249$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…a9bcbacked Minnesota54c2,199$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ee…eedcbacked New Mexico47c2,199$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.