Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91bcddc8e2b7025aef6360eeeb6670d4657127e3cab76b09946fc113d0247d55

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Minnesotaof Minnesota, New Mexico
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x11e2…26ccbacked New Mexico	51c	11,839$6,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,038.06	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-7.0wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Minnesota	49c	9,146$4,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,666.23	862	43.7%377 W · 485 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed New Mexico	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	290	55.2%160 W · 130 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Minnesota	61c	4,102$2,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,587.03	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Minnesota	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,559.99	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked New Mexico	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota	50c	1,894$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$942.16	628	43.6%274 W · 354 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Minnesota	49c	1,804$881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.66	632	43.7%276 W · 356 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+138.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico	47c	1,213$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.94	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Minnesota	53c	1,070$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.53	205	53.7%110 W · 95 L	+14.6wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Minnesota	48c	1,016$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.09	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Minnesota	50c	842.8$418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.86	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked New Mexico	52c	800$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Minnesota	48c	697$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.44	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico	52c	605.76$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.51	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed New Mexico	32c	500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+6.4wins	+0.17per pick	31cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked New Mexico	52c	350.98$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.22	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd52…0c2fbacked Minnesota	74c	350$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed New Mexico	36c	302.47$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.35	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked New Mexico	52c	288.46$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	174	50%87 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62e…e8d0backed Minnesota	55c	245.45$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.45	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed New Mexico	52c	240$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	209	50.2%105 W · 104 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Minnesota	55c	226.22$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.44	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Minnesota	50c	210$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	216	44.9%97 W · 119 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed New Mexico	52c	209.25$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.06	542	43.2%234 W · 308 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Minnesota	49c	205.4$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.69	524	49.4%259 W · 265 L	-2.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2322…82c0backed Minnesota	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed New Mexico	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5912…2fe0backed New Mexico	55c	182.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Minnesota	48c	174.05$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked New Mexico	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed New Mexico	51c	145.14$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.02	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…a6e2backed New Mexico	54c	130$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed New Mexico	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Minnesota	45c	105.28$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.01	108	50.9%55 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked New Mexico	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.29per pick	11cpaid	+300%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Minnesota	34c	100$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	34cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed New Mexico	53c	96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Minnesota	48c	90$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.2	648	41.2%267 W · 381 L	+12.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked New Mexico	52c	87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.24	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked New Mexico	52c	77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked New Mexico	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	571	44.7%255 W · 316 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed New Mexico	54c	74.72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.35	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-5.1wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Minnesota	69c	73.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.82	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked New Mexico	57c	71.84$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.86	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Minnesota	46c	70$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked New Mexico	51c	59.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…72c3backed Minnesota	48c	52.39$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.01	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed New Mexico	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Minnesota	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed New Mexico	52c	44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Minnesota	47c	42.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2a…37f4backed Minnesota	53c	40.95$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Minnesota	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked New Mexico	53c	39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+21%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…4c2cbacked New Mexico	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Minnesota	45c	37.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.89	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4006…5813backed Minnesota	57c	35.69$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Minnesota	49c	30.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.45	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60c…b395backed Minnesota	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Minnesota	47c	29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…9a3ebacked Minnesota	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Minnesota	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Minnesota	47c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Minnesota	46c	23.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	284	40.8%116 W · 168 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New Mexico	46c	23.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…9f5abacked Minnesota	48c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Minnesota	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbc…dc07backed Minnesota	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)this page
New Mexico vs. MinnesotaMinnesota won
New Mexico vs. Minnesota: 1H MoneylineMinnesota won
New Mexico vs. Minnesota: O/U 44.5Under won
O/U 43.5Under won
Spread: Minnesota (-1.5)Minnesota won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event