College Football · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82693c2d43a01caa00d1b0b27d22a61f6beba45f96a7d212d4e14166cdaa625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesotaof Minnesota, New Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Minnesota | 50c | 362,671$181,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180,802.9 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed New Mexico | 50c | 145,614$72,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,733.19 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed New Mexico | 49c | 105,456$52,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,048.75 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked New Mexico | 50c | 73,942$36,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,762.22 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed New Mexico | 50c | 50,000$24,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,800 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…b89ebacked New Mexico | 51c | 48,092$24,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,526.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Minnesota | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Minnesota | 49c | 30,718$15,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,561.05 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed New Mexico | 51c | 29,939$15,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,268.92 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Minnesota | 50c | 16,688$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,344 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked New Mexico | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico | 49c | 10,159$4,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.2 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Minnesota | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Minnesota | 50c | 7,557$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,778.31 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Minnesota | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Minnesota | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota | 50c | 5,339$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.54 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed New Mexico | 50c | 5,005$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked New Mexico | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed New Mexico | 50c | 3,080$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed New Mexico | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked New Mexico | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Minnesota | 49c | 1,488$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.91 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed New Mexico | 50c | 1,170$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked New Mexico | 50c | 1,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Minnesota | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Minnesota | 51c | 857.5$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.43 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Minnesota | 51c | 823.1$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.32 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Minnesota | 52c | 817.31$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Minnesota | 51c | 810$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.9 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Minnesota | 51c | 637.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked New Mexico | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 7cpaid | +341.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked New Mexico | 52c | 576$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.21 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Minnesota | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Minnesota | 50c | 393.78$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…2204backed Minnesota | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Minnesota | 51c | 360.25$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked New Mexico | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Minnesota | 51c | 256.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed New Mexico | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed New Mexico | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Minnesota | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico | 48c | 160.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked Minnesota | 51c | 158.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Minnesota | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed New Mexico | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Minnesota | 52c | 116.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Minnesota | 48c | 113.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed New Mexico | 52c | 111.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed New Mexico | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed New Mexico | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked New Mexico | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…6bc7backed Minnesota | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed New Mexico | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…2e6cbacked New Mexico | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…2728backed Minnesota | 59c | 78.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed New Mexico | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked New Mexico | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked New Mexico | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed New Mexico | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Minnesota | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8129backed Minnesota | 52c | 54.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed New Mexico | 49c | 43.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed New Mexico | 49c | 42.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked New Mexico | 47c | 41.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New Mexico | 48c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd7…3642backed Minnesota | 47c | 37.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Minnesota | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed New Mexico | 49c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Minnesota | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Minnesota | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked Minnesota | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked New Mexico | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Minnesota | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Minnesota | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Minnesota | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota (-1.5)this page
- New Mexico vs. MinnesotaMinnesota won
- New Mexico vs. Minnesota: 1H MoneylineMinnesota won
- New Mexico vs. Minnesota: O/U 44.5Under won
- O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)Minnesota won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.