College Football · resolved market
New Mexico vs. Minnesota: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3ee81670629cc99ab90f8ee842453b0b9d4da0aa45e3a9e7b3c1f15df9e5a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesotaof New Mexico, Minnesota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Minnesota | 54c | 1,530$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.1 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked New Mexico | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minnesota | 16c | 694.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.96 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…26a3backed New Mexico | 48c | 599.92$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Minnesota | 17c | 500$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Minnesota | 51c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…ba76backed Minnesota | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5173backed Minnesota | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…a259backed Minnesota | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Minnesota | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…e4f6backed Minnesota | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…6ce0backed Minnesota | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…ffa6backed Minnesota | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…d3b6backed Minnesota | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Minnesota | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f3…f96dbacked Minnesota | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked New Mexico | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico | 48c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed New Mexico | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed New Mexico | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed New Mexico | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked New Mexico | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…cca3backed Minnesota | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…2fc5backed Minnesota | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Minnesota | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed New Mexico | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico vs. Minnesota: 1H Moneylinethis page
- New Mexico vs. MinnesotaMinnesota won
- New Mexico vs. Minnesota: O/U 44.5Under won
- O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota (-1.5)Minnesota won
- Spread: Minnesota (-2.5)Minnesota won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.