TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Avalanche vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Avalanche, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$785,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$784,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $785,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 559 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Senators43c294,990$126,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,774.7310840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Senators43c72,452$31,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,297.4548545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche58c70,151$40,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,509.471,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Avalanche57c46,000$26,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,22026849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Avalanche57c37,500$21,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,25056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Avalanche57c28,000$15,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,96022550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Avalanche57c25,300$14,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,4218453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche57c24,370$13,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,850.291,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…833cbacked Avalanche58c20,775$12,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,049.750%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Avalanche54c18,238$9,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,926.31,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Senators44c17,652$7,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,885.361,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche59c15,807$9,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,326.3661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche57c15,310$8,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,73686852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Senators43c15,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,55021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Avalanche57c15,000$8,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5503743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Senators40c14,582$5,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,745.7967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Avalanche57c14,306$8,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,174.12520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Avalanche57c14,084$8,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0284047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Avalanche57c12,500$7,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,12532946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf69…9076backed Senators42c12,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9601442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche58c11,567$6,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.991,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Senators40c11,476$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,885.7350049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Senators45c11,045$4,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,083.6614553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Senators43c11,000$4,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,27051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Senators55c10,404$5,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,703.292,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Avalanche58c9,648$5,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,579.5854047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Avalanche57c9,601$5,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,472.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Avalanche39c9,079$3,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.9327739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb603…754bbacked Avalanche57c8,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5603740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Avalanche57c7,492$4,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,305.327044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Avalanche58c7,241$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2001020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-60.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf54b…8a63backed Senators43c6,967$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,971.195149%25 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Senators41c6,500$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8351,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche49c6,037$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.22,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Avalanche54c5,881$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.922948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Senators44c5,777$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.962951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche60c5,538$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.931,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Senators43c5,500$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,14560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Senators41c5,380$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,153.8638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Senators62c5,366$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.563764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Senators37c5,307$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.521,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd6…18e4backed Avalanche57c5,263$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Senators41c5,020$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.6833243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Avalanche57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Avalanche57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Avalanche57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche56c4,829$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.982,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Avalanche57c4,820$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.2528251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Senators43c4,800$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.9920552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Avalanche58c4,696$2,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.3845955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Avalanche57c4,667$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6606245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Avalanche57c4,078$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.396835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Avalanche47c4,070$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.6958467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Senators69c3,780$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.1852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Senators43c3,488$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.374045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Avalanche57c3,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.8125447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Avalanche57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7102524%6 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-38.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Senators42c3,000$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.9910056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Senators53c2,901$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.511,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Avalanche60c2,749$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64341248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Senators48c2,709$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.1489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Avalanche57c2,637$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.0961953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Avalanche57c2,590$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.7593953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Avalanche58c2,514$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45832151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche45c2,461$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.542,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Avalanche58c2,400$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.9760249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche54c2,379$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.771,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Senators43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.827138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Avalanche44c2,297$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.8195049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Avalanche65c2,250$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46032650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Senators66c2,250$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.514757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e87…2171backed Avalanche45c2,185$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.2415360.8%93 W · 60 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Avalanche58c2,126$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2331450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Senators40c2,112$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.961,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed Avalanche59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Senators42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.9922747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Senators41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.984346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Avalanche40c1,994$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.341,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Avalanche57c1,959$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.6325555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Avalanche57c1,889$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.7384953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Senators43c1,860$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.261959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Avalanche58c1,800$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03840049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Avalanche58c1,800$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Avalanche58c1,756$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.318258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Senators43c1,750$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Avalanche38c1,748$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.273,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Senators43c1,747$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.515736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1353…5170backed Avalanche58c1,712$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Avalanche60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Senators54c1,629$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.1443742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Senators43c1,600$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91234845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Senators41c1,588$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.83542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Senators43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Senators40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche58c1,440$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.911,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Avalanche39c1,430$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4438738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche59c1,421$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.1189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Avalanche60c1,400$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8408134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a82…7547backed Avalanche49c1,331$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6565942.4%25 W · 34 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Avalanche58c1,200$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69412947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.