TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Jazz, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,479,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,574,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,479,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 779 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Jazz20c262,593$51,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,602.7551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Jazz22c252,405$55,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,175.5548343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Raptors79c157,152$124,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,916.1819560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Jazz39c148,643$57,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,970.99043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Jazz21c142,860$30,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,000.558148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors78c118,958$92,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,360.323257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Jazz25c96,077$24,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,074.399857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors77c51,645$40,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,622.331,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors80c51,628$41,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,388.774,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Jazz22c50,000$11,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,029.997640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Jazz19c49,711$9,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,377.7727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Jazz21c45,099$9,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,247.8114243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Raptors77c45,000$34,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9915247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Jazz21c42,198$8,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,861.6660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Raptors80c40,000$31,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,164.5136359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Raptors78c40,000$31,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Raptors80c37,697$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,697.1620758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Raptors78c36,527$28,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,201.2451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raptors80c35,186$28,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,037.1192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Jazz22c35,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,700.0210236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed Jazz9c26,138$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Jazz14c26,029$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.471,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz25c24,378$6,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,148.461,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Raptors78c22,833$17,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,910.6619954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Jazz22c22,005$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.121549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors77c21,721$16,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.675,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3c…d637backed Jazz35c21,700$7,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5952128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Raptors65c21,700$14,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5951080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Raptors79c21,257$16,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,463.9729351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors79c20,861$16,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,428.464,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Raptors77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Raptors77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors69c19,115$13,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,018.574,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Raptors76c18,328$13,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,369.7948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Jazz20c17,378$3,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,522.761,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Raptors80c16,778$13,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,355.6271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors62c16,043$10,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,038.611,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Raptors77c15,581$11,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.628961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Jazz22c15,538$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.326651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Raptors80c15,006$12,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.21668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Jazz18c14,513$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors75c13,836$10,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.268,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors80c10,979$8,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.972,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors73c10,953$8,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.963,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Raptors78c10,713$8,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.8648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Raptors78c10,255$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Raptors78c10,120$7,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.45655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Raptors77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Jazz19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Raptors80c9,878$7,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.6628742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Raptors78c9,580$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.6712649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Jazz27c8,436$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30150838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3490backed Raptors79c8,431$6,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.2514454.9%79 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors79c8,335$6,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Raptors76c8,275$6,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.4130157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors79c8,004$6,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.292,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Raptors80c8,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Jazz22c8,000$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.9932051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Raptors80c7,463$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.5452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Raptors79c7,200$5,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49486641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jazz9c6,068$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.741,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Raptors80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2008555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Jazz23c5,352$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23133735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jazz19c5,312$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7282…9a96backed Raptors80c5,262$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Raptors79c5,253$4,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.1617162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz19c5,050$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Jazz21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Jazz22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed Jazz15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors79c4,971$3,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.583,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Raptors78c4,661$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.133060%18 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Raptors78c4,638$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.3227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Raptors75c4,574$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13524752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors79c4,553$3,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.141,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Jazz23c4,400$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01224549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Raptors80c4,373$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.513357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Raptors78c4,337$3,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.027957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Raptors79c4,238$3,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.248063.8%51 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Raptors78c4,165$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.2615349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Raptors80c3,819$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.756258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Raptors79c3,667$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.0728649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Jazz19c3,652$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70537930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Raptors79c3,600$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.9965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Jazz29c3,431$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.3438540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5f…db04backed Raptors74c3,343$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.493056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Jazz22c3,132$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.3318446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Raptors78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Raptors74c3,000$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Jazz37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11017646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a18…1a42backed Raptors78c3,000$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Raptors78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9975347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Raptors68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.1812955%71 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Jazz25c2,827$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.5220838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Raptors77c2,800$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64419653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Jazz22c2,727$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Jazz20c2,542$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.323747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Jazz22c2,512$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.3220651%105 W · 101 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors63c2,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Jazz22c2,306$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.679443.6%41 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.