NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5074151f043dd4e3e5da753069737c86517e88b6d606648d3f23f8b7c637d441

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $131,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x060e…2384backed Under	46c	120,000$55,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64,799.99	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Over	54c	100,684$54,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54,369.36	518	44.4%230 W · 288 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	11,804$6,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,373.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Under	46c	6,300$2,898 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,402	210	57.1%120 W · 90 L	+20.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Over	54c	6,000$3,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,240	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	54c	2,321$1,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.47	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over	54c	1,389$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	54c	1,268$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.42	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	54c	1,200$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	57c	610.85$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.67	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over	54c	598.57$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.23	186	50%93 W · 93 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	43c	511$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.73	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	45c	418.29$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.39	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	46c	407.73$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.26	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	55c	327.27$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c63…b90dbacked Over	55c	218.18$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	215.8$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.88	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	54c	203.29$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.78	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	55c	201.8$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.8	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	489	56.4%276 W · 213 L	+31.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	54c	199.99$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.99	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over	53c	194.13$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.89	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Over	53c	190$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	221	38%84 W · 137 L	-11.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Over	54c	186.67$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Over	55c	181.04$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	31c	181$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	45c	133.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.33	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Over	56c	129.89$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.74	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-8.7wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under	53c	114$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.58	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea52…b082backed Over	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	587	54.7%321 W · 266 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	55c	70$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over	55c	50.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	170	46.5%79 W · 91 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event