NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1c6eec73fa53a6fe42ef1581de508f8881cda6152cc446ad0ad94ce9bd8e2f

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Raptors, Jazz
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,072 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf4cb…4d21backed Jazz	55c	8,500$4,675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,825	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1e6…5266backed Raptors	45c	8,500$3,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,825	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Raptors	42c	3,571$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	58c	2,239$1,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$946.22	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz	58c	2,169$1,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$916.48	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Jazz	59c	1,034$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.9	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	58c	500$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	60c	333.44$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.44	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors	41c	298.59$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.53	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Raptors	45c	238.22$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.2	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fd…1852backed Jazz	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors	44c	146.72$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.13	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors	43c	139.53$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13e…7c59backed Jazz	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc244…c06fbacked Jazz	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Raptors	35c	81.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Raptors	38c	80.82$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz	65c	71.38$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Jazz	56c	56.82$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	409	60.6%248 W · 161 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Jazz	63c	55$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.35	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors	37c	55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Raptors	42c	43.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	177	50.8%90 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Raptors	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	258	47.3%122 W · 136 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz	54c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe178…e480backed Raptors	46c	21.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event