NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8713534e1c60b0b0d15e531b15dbeff9fb827e149801282d1fe11a4d293d822a

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Raptors, Jazz
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,921 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors	51c	9,815$4,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,994.74	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Jazz	49c	9,000$4,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,590	483	43.7%211 W · 272 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Jazz	48c	7,843$3,764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,078.15	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Raptors	52c	5,769$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Jazz	49c	4,550$2,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,320.49	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Raptors	51c	3,926$2,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,016.66	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Raptors	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Raptors	52c	1,100$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	48c	933.5$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485.42	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Raptors	52c	576.92$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	359	42.1%151 W · 208 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Jazz	48c	466.74$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.7	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Raptors	52c	309.35$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.17	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Jazz	50c	270$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	184	46.2%85 W · 99 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Raptors	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a5…b620backed Jazz	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	64cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Raptors	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fb8…85b9backed Raptors	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	130	50.8%66 W · 64 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab8…b5a6backed Jazz	50c	197.98$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.99	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	65c	185.05$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.11	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors	52c	133$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.16	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Jazz	47c	127.72$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.72	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Jazz	49c	90$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.9	206	51%105 W · 101 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3eb0backed Jazz	50c	89.6$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Raptors	51c	74.51$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Jazz	49c	45$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Jazz	43c	45$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.65	435	44.6%194 W · 241 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…64e1backed Raptors	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Jazz	50c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.31	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…5f3cbacked Jazz	50c	28.54$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.27	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Raptors	52c	28.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	216	45.8%99 W · 117 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Jazz	50c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	213	57.7%123 W · 90 L	+10.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed3f…2d57backed Jazz	50c	25.72$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	141	54.6%77 W · 64 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df3…9d6bbacked Jazz	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event