TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Seahawks, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,253,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,297,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,253,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 663 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Patriots49c512,182$251,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,626.425154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Patriots52c447,289$232,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,539.812055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks48c424,539$203,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,760.1630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Patriots52c306,616$159,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,440.153253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Seahawks48c270,465$128,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,734.681968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Seahawks47c178,269$83,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,487.5427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Seahawks47c152,885$71,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,029.022965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Seahawks47c152,721$71,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,977.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Seahawks62c142,073$88,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,755.1116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Patriots53c100,000$53,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bd…238ebacked Seahawks48c100,000$48,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Seahawks47c99,999$47,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,999.4517454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Patriots53c94,662$50,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,173.944148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a9…e9b6backed Patriots52c85,446$44,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,431.9440%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Seahawks48c64,594$31,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,588.8853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Seahawks48c63,635$30,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,090.2747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Seahawks47c57,000$26,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,210666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Patriots53c52,594$27,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,864.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Patriots53c50,100$26,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,5536459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Patriots52c45,000$23,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,399.9931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Patriots53c40,000$21,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,20016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Seahawks47c37,500$17,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,874.931250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Patriots51c36,187$18,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,455.244440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Seahawks47c34,944$16,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,370.7323937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks60c32,147$19,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,995.5873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Patriots53c28,302$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Patriots53c28,302$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0001414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Patriots52c27,101$14,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,094.3854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Seahawks47c26,650$12,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,124.4328447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Patriots52c23,565$12,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,253.8739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Patriots53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,600728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x415c…a715backed Patriots53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,600825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7e7…84dfbacked Seahawks48c19,817$9,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,304.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Seahawks47c18,050$8,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,566.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Patriots52c18,000$9,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,439.971060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Seahawks48c17,980$8,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,349.551233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Seahawks47c17,166$8,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,098.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick55cpaid+75.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Seahawks47c16,706$7,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,861.0717648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Seahawks48c15,680$7,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,153.66100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Seahawks47c15,191$7,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,051.065837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Patriots53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,95035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Patriots52c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,799.9824056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Patriots53c13,113$6,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,949.893033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Patriots51c12,809$6,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,497.7250242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3014…dcddbacked Patriots53c12,644$6,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,701.32837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Seahawks47c12,345$5,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,542.681283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Patriots52c11,750$6,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,143.8320661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Patriots17c11,585$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.5312748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Patriots52c10,774$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.492433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots52c10,556$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.2883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Seahawks48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2007051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Seahawks49c9,228$4,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.982850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Seahawks48c8,750$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,549.992138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09e0…e546backed Seahawks47c8,415$3,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,459.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Seahawks47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2401450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Seahawks47c7,411$3,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,927.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Patriots53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7103033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Seahawks47c6,785$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.052740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Patriots53c6,604$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5007361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Patriots53c6,604$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Patriots53c6,600$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…8416backed Seahawks48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2509757.7%56 W · 41 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78a6…7fcfbacked Seahawks48c6,231$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf23…0543backed Patriots54c5,504$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Patriots52c5,118$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.471361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Seahawks62c4,935$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.444761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Patriots53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Patriots53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac75…a9e9backed Patriots53c4,668$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,47420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Seahawks67c4,655$3,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc703…c3d5backed Patriots53c4,594$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Seahawks46c4,342$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.95536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Patriots54c4,167$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2054…533ebacked Patriots53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Seahawks48c3,740$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Patriots38c3,689$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.3510537.1%39 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac9…9678backed Seahawks48c3,643$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.362040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Patriots53c3,465$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.71,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83bf…0ef2backed Seahawks48c3,240$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.88825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Seahawks48c3,200$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6641546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Seahawks48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5602045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Patriots52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9915044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Patriots53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.993724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Patriots52c2,774$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Patriots52c2,736$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.053046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ca…2a84backed Patriots54c2,617$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade5…0113backed Patriots53c2,584$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Seahawks47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9926649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Seahawks48c2,464$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.472152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93e…52bfbacked Seahawks50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Patriots53c2,370$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2506755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Seahawks48c2,350$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots52c2,236$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.0177052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Patriots53c2,207$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.672638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Patriots33c2,133$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.292441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4536…4237backed Seahawks48c2,085$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…12cfbacked Seahawks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabc…a190backed Patriots53c2,075$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Patriots53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06014151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Seahawks48c2,000$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03119436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.