TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Clippers vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,025,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,603,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,025,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns54c392,492$212,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212,042.0487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Clippers47c315,198$148,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167,055.119043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns51c302,168$155,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155,138.521,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Clippers46c217,391$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117,391.1421057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Clippers42c189,739$79,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,048.4651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Clippers46c100,933$46,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,522.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Suns47c100,423$47,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,194.5372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d89…b02cbacked Clippers46c100,000$46,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,999.962560%15 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Clippers45c76,171$34,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,589.7116752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Suns56c72,585$40,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,394.514358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Suns17c70,917$12,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,055.8819954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Suns58c61,950$35,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,930.9923257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Clippers43c57,500$24,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,7755139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Suns55c55,550$30,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,698.4745850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers46c49,380$22,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,881.479,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Suns56c45,626$25,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,550.6710949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Suns50c44,505$22,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,062.611,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Suns58c41,382$23,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,861.4740350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Suns49c36,802$18,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,032.922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb88…2430backed Clippers52c36,713$19,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,622.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Suns55c34,591$19,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,024.9136359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Suns56c32,036$18,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,089.6139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Suns0c32,015$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.275213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Clippers46c31,526$14,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,947.654,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns42c30,765$13,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,062.472,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Clippers44c30,664$13,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,216.419857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Suns54c30,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,199.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb383…f189backed Clippers53c28,602$15,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,460.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Suns54c28,595$15,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,427.5722453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Suns58c28,000$16,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,12019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Clippers43c27,766$11,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,826.3559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Suns2c26,005$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Clippers49c25,169$12,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,884.3814243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Suns51c25,000$12,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,699.9715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Clippers49c21,998$10,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,244.6555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f1…9b81backed Suns3c21,983$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.112533.6%42 W · 83 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Clippers46c21,737$9,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,737.9610930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3c…d637backed Clippers43c21,700$9,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,3692128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Suns57c21,700$12,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,3691080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns50c21,654$10,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,852.082,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Clippers68c20,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Suns0c20,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4667921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1067…8398backed Suns48c18,958$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,099.95922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Clippers44c18,900$8,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,583.994235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns29c18,746$5,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.141,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d4f…2ba1backed Suns48c18,690$8,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,971.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns53c18,252$9,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,626.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Clippers72c18,000$12,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,04048352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns27c17,466$4,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,713.541,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns52c16,847$8,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,796.232,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Clippers46c16,086$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,686.6938253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns57c16,064$9,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,156.291,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe194…cd47backed Clippers44c15,744$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,744.231764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+71.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Suns0c15,744$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers46c15,636$7,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,458.536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Clippers46c15,605$7,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,423.713,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Suns49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,35035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns37c14,664$5,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,386.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Clippers46c14,573$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,884.952,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Suns1c14,203$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.611,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8e…ef1abacked Clippers44c13,929$6,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,740.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Clippers44c13,587$6,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,578.0621549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Suns58c13,318$7,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,780.9813842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Clippers41c12,102$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,083.1362347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Clippers46c12,054$5,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,509.1530845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Suns1c10,572$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.827211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Suns53c10,334$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Clippers45c10,089$4,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,548.8931644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Clippers44c10,030$4,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.81,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Suns58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80015349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Suns54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.871,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Clippers51c10,000$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,935.3377348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Clippers45c9,399$4,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.2628649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns34c9,290$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1571,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…8e70backed Clippers47c8,887$4,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,707.744725.5%12 W · 35 L-12.4wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-52.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Suns42c8,269$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.7952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Clippers67c8,037$5,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.7850838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Suns52c8,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,18032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Clippers42c8,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.9712657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Suns47c8,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.9714945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Clippers49c7,997$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.3985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Clippers42c7,927$3,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.5523245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Clippers49c7,764$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,996.211,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns58c7,644$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.711,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Clippers51c7,331$3,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.0371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Suns51c7,194$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,668.76651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Suns47c6,967$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.5919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Suns48c6,320$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06035942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Clippers44c6,157$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.152,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Clippers44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Suns10c5,960$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59616848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26c…278dbacked Suns48c5,800$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7841752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcd…c3d4backed Clippers52c5,800$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7841963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Suns58c5,563$3,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20916863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns0c5,150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a18…1a42backed Suns51c5,100$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Clippers58c5,083$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.2848956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79e5…9417backed Clippers66c5,080$3,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.56165.6%40 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.