TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof FUT Esports, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$834,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,021,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $834,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked Astralis43c117,868$50,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,432.7213633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed FUT Esports61c113,218$69,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,032.3421051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Astralis42c100,000$42,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,999.968243.9%36 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked FUT Esports51c68,146$34,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,522.5439249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed FUT Esports57c54,966$31,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,390.2841649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FUT Esports57c35,005$19,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,952.8583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…12f6backed Astralis41c31,222$12,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,296.321553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Astralis25c30,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.9914441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Astralis43c25,433$11,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,372.6142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed FUT Esports57c22,890$13,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,110.2734156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Astralis45c20,000$8,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,066.449247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports55c17,091$9,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,48076657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Astralis23c15,000$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,61067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Astralis45c13,333$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,333.3323839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Astralis35c13,000$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,49019455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Astralis56c11,822$6,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,156.993,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed FUT Esports58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.9916449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FUT Esports58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.9772453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed FUT Esports58c9,000$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.9912441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FUT Esports52c8,667$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.333,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FUT Esports57c8,154$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,673.7712648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports57c7,023$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.4865950.4%332 W · 327 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked FUT Esports58c7,000$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0606555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Astralis41c6,500$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.9428538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FUT Esports58c6,000$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Astralis42c5,152$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.0315050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Astralis30c4,500$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,148.5861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Astralis34c4,396$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.046432.8%21 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Astralis42c4,147$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.1182143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked FUT Esports57c4,123$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.220539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b5…0e15backed FUT Esports58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed Astralis42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3205129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked FUT Esports53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1204548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Astralis23c3,898$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.7511037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Astralis46c3,797$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0554860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297d…f721backed FUT Esports59c3,740$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked Astralis36c3,581$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.155261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Astralis22c3,365$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.932,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…5fbabacked Astralis23c3,221$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+100.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FUT Esports72c3,140$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.691,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked FUT Esports58c3,103$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8009349.5%46 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed FUT Esports59c2,818$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.557642.1%32 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FUT Esports41c2,565$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.412,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Astralis42c2,454$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.0211638.8%45 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed FUT Esports39c2,379$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92513059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Astralis43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.582853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports58c2,272$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3071,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports56c2,238$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.4575545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed FUT Esports42c2,228$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92596945.6%442 W · 527 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Astralis39c2,082$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.1228453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602a…0d75backed Astralis58c2,026$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.22339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Astralis44c2,018$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.2346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed FUT Esports58c2,016$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.6410538.1%40 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed FUT Esports57c2,000$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14922941.9%96 W · 133 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Astralis43c2,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15012150.4%61 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf09c…4d9abacked FUT Esports76c2,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.99666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FUT Esports55c1,967$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.8521455.6%119 W · 95 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Astralis67c1,919$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.819337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports67c1,914$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.961,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked FUT Esports59c1,815$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.132060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Astralis38c1,507$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.6125941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Astralis40c1,505$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.5650833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Astralis44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8409946.5%46 W · 53 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed FUT Esports58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87013954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Astralis33c1,500$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00444848.4%217 W · 231 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked FUT Esports62c1,423$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.4727947.3%132 W · 147 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Astralis27c1,405$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.691,05157.2%601 W · 450 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed FUT Esports57c1,381$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.3811758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FUT Esports75c1,356$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.9564652.8%341 W · 305 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed FUT Esports62c1,298$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.3823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FUT Esports34c1,298$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.71,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed FUT Esports67c1,280$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.0127348.4%132 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FUT Esports58c1,200$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed FUT Esports9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10813043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FUT Esports31c1,124$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3721042.9%90 W · 120 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed FUT Esports3c1,110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8770032%224 W · 476 L-45.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis43c1,095$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.0981544.4%362 W · 453 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed FUT Esports57c1,062$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4c…1362backed Astralis48c1,037$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.081844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed Astralis42c1,024$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.8110244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed FUT Esports58c1,020$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FUT Esports58c1,018$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.4322448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FUT Esports77c1,002$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7717,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed Astralis42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5805957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked FUT Esports58c999.97$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9817148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Astralis43c997.17$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.3920050.5%101 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7be…3aa3backed FUT Esports58c996.38$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.980%0 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed FUT Esports60c990$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.18846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FUT Esports60c894.36$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54061854.9%339 W · 279 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede4…532ebacked FUT Esports80c878.65$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed FUT Esports59c849.99$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.9912752%66 W · 61 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed Astralis56c848.05$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.318052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FUT Esports67c800$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.021,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c7…4138backed FUT Esports57c799.98$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8820…0118backed FUT Esports6c797.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11fd…a851backed FUT Esports58c788.45$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.75380%0 W · 38 L-11.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked Astralis42c765.33$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8911630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Astralis37c759.82$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.947935.4%28 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed FUT Esports13c730$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.95543.6%24 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked Astralis43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3992352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.