TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sheltonof Shelton, Ruud
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,730,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,962,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,730,634 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a4d…619abacked Ruud38c225,980$86,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,573.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Shelton62c136,344$84,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,673.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Ruud10c99,900$10,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,185.4480938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Shelton62c68,571$42,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,045.4311633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Shelton60c54,243$32,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,707.0310162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Shelton62c47,680$29,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,118.5611053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Ruud38c33,985$12,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,972.8225428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Shelton65c31,312$20,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,104.345737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Ruud41c30,221$12,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,390.591,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ruud37c29,671$10,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,878.042,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Ruud38c27,245$10,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,380.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Shelton60c25,960$15,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,324.3327063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Ruud37c21,990$8,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,136.2919134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Ruud37c21,768$8,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,004.9824448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Ruud38c21,374$8,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,137.161,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Shelton63c20,635$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,634.922568%17 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ruud47c20,020$9,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,446.481,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fe…9607backed Shelton52c19,802$10,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,455.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ruud38c18,073$6,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,950.7331332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Shelton63c15,491$9,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,808.144560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Ruud38c15,431$5,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.7814450.7%73 W · 71 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Ruud37c14,953$5,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,503.745228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Ruud1c14,500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20123126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f6…742fbacked Ruud29c13,863$3,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,982.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shelton70c13,400$9,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,961.711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ruud37c13,216$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,903.792,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Ruud37c12,162$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.923141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ruud40c12,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80076140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7248…5394backed Shelton65c10,599$6,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,710.62785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Ruud37c10,354$3,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.9211242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Shelton62c10,262$6,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.6112752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Shelton59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1003537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Ruud36c9,258$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,294.123046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Ruud38c9,179$3,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,487.916541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Ruud26c9,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Shelton65c8,575$5,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,022.4244754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Ruud37c8,200$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47db…fcf2backed Ruud38c8,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,04020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Ruud36c7,865$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.5476146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Shelton64c7,813$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.52770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Shelton61c7,000$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,73011230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Shelton63c6,987$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.310440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7555…49d2backed Shelton64c6,842$4,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.191258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb072…509abacked Ruud11c6,800$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Shelton63c6,631$4,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.681526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Ruud33c6,394$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10537444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed Ruud35c5,535$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.693729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Ruud51c5,386$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,765.935444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c8…e832backed Ruud37c5,009$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Ruud38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Shelton60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Shelton60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Shelton61c4,944$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.920844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Shelton46c4,400$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3762846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…af57backed Shelton69c4,192$2,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.115545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Ruud0c4,088$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.652,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ruud42c3,987$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.321,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa805…27e0backed Ruud15c3,596$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+213.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Ruud36c3,530$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.095030%15 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Ruud41c3,517$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.0719241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c46…6a2abacked Ruud0c3,315$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Shelton61c3,279$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.698042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Shelton78c3,249$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.842,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Ruud33c3,238$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.9726535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Shelton62c3,227$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.2859151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Ruud38c3,220$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.076740.3%27 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Shelton61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Shelton62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1408640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Ruud37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11010043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Ruud42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2602218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Ruud38c2,833$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.871,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Ruud37c2,706$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.4536968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shelton68c2,642$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.912,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked Ruud38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Shelton64c2,611$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.967356.2%41 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Ruud39c2,604$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.137,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Ruud40c2,502$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.679264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Shelton60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00072452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0122…d4a9backed Shelton47c2,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.99633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aba…5aeebacked Shelton66c2,262$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Shelton65c2,259$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.315862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Shelton61c2,227$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.5810541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Shelton61c2,204$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.1919846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ruud37c2,159$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.167,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Ruud39c2,051$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Shelton62c2,039$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.0412740.2%51 W · 76 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Shelton46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9744360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Ruud38c1,921$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.9848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Ruud53c1,892$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014536.6%53 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x977d…7ddbbacked Ruud30c1,881$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Ruud54c1,836$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bcc…de43backed Shelton64c1,836$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.941963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4976…f422backed Shelton63c1,825$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Ruud36c1,790$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.418237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Shelton57c1,775$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7648143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Ruud36c1,729$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.3742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Shelton64c1,714$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.942564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Ruud41c1,702$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Shelton62c1,700$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6467850%39 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Shelton61c1,700$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.9920653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.