Tennis · resolved market
Shelton vs. Ruud: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf38b3778976860edec1f0bd5edff125872484cc698565eb6d2f325b49de46db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under 3.5 | 0c | 5,460$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 3,089$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.17 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 2,539$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.22 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 2,348$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.61 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.13 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 1,003$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 1,000$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.07 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 800$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…7f6cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 748$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 397.68$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…d3d3backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 277.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Under 3.5 | 6c | 222.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 83 | 13.3%11 W · 72 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 198.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 192$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 76.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9134…a227backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…39c5backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 75.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 74.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 74.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…bffabacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 52.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…9406backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over 3.5 | 79c | 38.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…dac9backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shelton vs. Ruud: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper RuudShelton won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs RuudRuud won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)Shelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5)Ruud won
- Shelton vs. Ruud: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Shelton vs. Ruud: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Shelton vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.