Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a8fbacfbb4b7748d7b78fd1a37b2ea0b3c2552bfcccf81b7fcdfea81076132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $836,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $946,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $836,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeec…fc19backed No | 0c | 112,690$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed No | 0c | 72,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…0d19backed No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bc51backed No | 0c | 21,130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb54…1bc5backed No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de3…fb9cbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 13,762$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…2f03backed No | 0c | 13,070$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 64c | 12,751$8,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,627.4 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…a15abacked No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 70c | 11,770$8,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,556.76 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed No | 49c | 11,457$5,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,642.47 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 64c | 11,280$7,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,069.55 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…8857backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f5…9406backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…74f6backed No | 8c | 9,715$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 4c | 9,655$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.55 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…652bbacked No | 2c | 5,828$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 2c | 5,724$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2f47backed No | 4c | 5,268$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…5e8cbacked No | 2c | 4,991$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 5c | 4,133$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed No | 13c | 4,084$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,987$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…91f1backed No | 7c | 3,537$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a2…6200backed No | 3c | 3,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 39c | 3,348$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.13 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 3c | 3,215$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 80c | 2,850$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.83 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…552cbacked No | 2c | 2,596$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…39debacked No | 8c | 2,576$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe93…7e81backed No | 4c | 2,366$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…fddabacked No | 66c | 2,279$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…6fa3backed No | 3c | 2,128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…d2babacked No | 11c | 2,075$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb6…9667backed No | 4c | 2,038$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531f…d15cbacked No | 1c | 2,029$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a2…fde7backed No | 5c | 2,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b658backed No | 3c | 1,840$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…aa2bbacked No | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd7…0a46backed No | 44c | 1,746$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 27c | 1,665$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.67 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,638$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 66c | 1,569$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.01 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…eaa9backed No | 47c | 1,565$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked No | 2c | 1,552$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,538$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…6cb5backed No | 3c | 1,482$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked No | 69c | 1,370$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed No | 15c | 1,351$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,323$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.08 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…ae86backed No | 23c | 1,288$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,274$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.7 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,267$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.53 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed No | 23c | 1,224$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Yes | 38c | 1,200$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked No | 4c | 1,184$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…68e6backed Yes | 57c | 1,141$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 56c | 1,112$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.71 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,050$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked No | 45c | 1,024$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…b1e7backed No | 7c | 1,015$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…94cabacked No | 37c | 1,012$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…35b8backed No | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 44c | 978.4$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.77 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 19c | 967.34$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 964.83$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 48c | 961.36$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.54 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 3c | 957.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 940.16$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.03 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 47c | 923.36$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.61 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…f585backed No | 4c | 913.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…3b51backed No | 22c | 904.73$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 855.7$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.31 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 67c | 801.41$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.57 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…d2ddbacked No | 3c | 769.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 77c | 761.01$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 77c | 727.3$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed No | 3c | 696.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 683.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…8b0ebacked No | 4c | 680$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 44c | 667.65$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…e41abacked No | 2c | 666.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…1503backed No | 2c | 646.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 3c | 643.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 3c | 643.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6022…390bbacked No | 39c | 641.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…1a38backed No | 4c | 632.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…b370backed No | 4c | 630.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 53c | 583.95$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.98 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 61c | 575.79$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 42c | 555$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.9 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…ffc0backed No | 4c | 548.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b80…1e08backed No | 11c | 540.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.