Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f9608ad6458359217e88ffa02af3ef5baa606233664a9d588cc28692a993e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcd4…02a5backed Yes | 1c | 31,004$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…b544backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…35d1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2f47backed Yes | 3c | 16,084$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 36c | 10,208$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.97 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…5e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,658$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…f713backed Yes | 65c | 4,328$2,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,808.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 64c | 3,991$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.83 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb6…9667backed Yes | 1c | 3,535$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…1cc1backed Yes | 63c | 3,232$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 51c | 3,222$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.1 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 14c | 2,905$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.87 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 75c | 2,697$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…68e6backed Yes | 45c | 2,688$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…5cb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,501$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…b9e2backed Yes | 4c | 2,483$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,254$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…1849backed Yes | 56c | 2,201$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…7acabacked Yes | 47c | 2,149$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed Yes | 67c | 2,043$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.81 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…f8d2backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,938$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…a4eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 64c | 1,788$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 53c | 1,747$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.6 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ba…3b3cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,587$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…455ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,479$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.48 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…e5c3backed Yes | 37c | 1,471$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 1,429$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.67 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,391$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 1,364$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…c132backed Yes | 13c | 1,359$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…c462backed Yes | 1c | 1,343$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked Yes | 10c | 1,302$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…1c27backed Yes | 23c | 1,283$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 1,127$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.39 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…feafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,087$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…f32bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,077$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 1,073$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.06 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…7b4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,052$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 46c | 1,030$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 69c | 1,028$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.67 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…1bb9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed Yes | 25c | 985.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 66c | 970.27$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.55 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 11c | 936.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…112cbacked Yes | 2c | 909.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…0432backed Yes | 61c | 880.76$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…d6c1backed Yes | 67c | 855.44$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…6cb5backed Yes | 2c | 832.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c9…e79ebacked Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 38c | 799.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.99 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed No | 29c | 799.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 57c | 775.5$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked No | 77c | 749.96$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 60c | 741$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.89 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…c8cfbacked Yes | 5c | 732.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 56c | 715.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 57c | 704$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.21 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 697.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.67 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 680.85$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.83 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…935fbacked Yes | 9c | 675.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 53c | 660.75$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.74 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 646$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0d…94debacked Yes | 24c | 633.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…54babacked No | 40c | 618.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…d913backed Yes | 49c | 616.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 73c | 599.74$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked No | 72c | 590.92$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked No | 79c | 558.64$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…09f7backed Yes | 11c | 531.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 66c | 520.32$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.09 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 57c | 514.01$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…cb8ebacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…4721backed Yes | 47c | 509.06$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9347…16efbacked No | 56c | 500$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 58c | 499.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 18c | 498.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…20d1backed Yes | 36c | 491.49$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked Yes | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 477.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…5114backed Yes | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…8408backed Yes | 3c | 459.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 60c | 458.32$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 452.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes | 63c | 444.8$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 15c | 436.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3579backed Yes | 2c | 435.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 434.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 78c | 422$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…3b2abacked Yes | 60c | 415.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 56c | 410.19$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ec…8e5dbacked No | 53c | 406.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed No | 49c | 404.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b1…bdc0backed Yes | 70c | 402.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.