TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof MOUZ, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,414,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,572,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,414,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 697 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked MOUZ33c351,651$115,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,016.2139249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ32c266,106$85,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,630.6342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Vitality67c185,524$124,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,245.0311146.8%52 W · 59 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xccb2…8586backed Vitality69c174,667$120,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,174.563961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Vitality67c168,098$112,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,472.3521051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MOUZ32c40,918$13,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,003.141649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ31c32,258$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.8921048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed MOUZ31c30,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,299.9810551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Vitality67c23,000$15,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,59012648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed MOUZ31c19,268$5,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,97325747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5092…fccdbacked MOUZ14c13,978$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.833737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Vitality67c12,514$8,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,129.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked MOUZ38c11,195$4,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.5427133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Vitality68c11,154$7,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.414942.9%21 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ31c10,435$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.597040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Vitality68c10,380$7,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.413347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Vitality69c10,203$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.94971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Vitality69c10,145$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.9322354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed MOUZ31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.9835153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Vitality67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.976555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vitality79c9,294$7,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.6638037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ11c9,215$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.723,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Vitality67c8,959$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,956.474163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed MOUZ31c8,290$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.1711046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Vitality67c8,000$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,62012651.6%65 W · 61 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3508…9babbacked Vitality69c7,951$5,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.86650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed MOUZ32c7,916$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.0819645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc598…b4acbacked MOUZ33c7,800$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.986237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ0c7,748$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Vitality69c7,725$5,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.9222448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed MOUZ32c7,500$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9912441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked MOUZ3c7,473$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ab…f441backed MOUZ34c7,461$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.532828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Vitality68c7,329$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.0735236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Vitality69c7,246$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.384344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ab3…12b2backed MOUZ33c7,129$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.47825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf403…e176backed Vitality68c7,129$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.19875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Vitality67c7,000$4,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Vitality68c7,000$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.985947.5%28 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Vitality74c5,896$4,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.694955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Vitality69c5,555$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.0521251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Vitality70c5,261$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.0946843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Vitality67c5,186$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.9439239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed MOUZ31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5502619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked MOUZ32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6008654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Vitality68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6007940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Vitality68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.961181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6286…5307backed Vitality68c4,951$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x632a…ac85backed MOUZ33c4,951$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.67944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ13c4,868$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.8198052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Vitality68c4,777$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.4135850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed Vitality68c4,712$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.0710354.4%56 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Vitality68c4,478$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.0215441.6%64 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed Vitality67c4,478$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.615954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed MOUZ33c4,410$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.426046.9%122 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Vitality67c4,354$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.821070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Vitality67c4,082$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.0629046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed MOUZ31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed MOUZ31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Vitality69c3,816$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.12152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Vitality65c3,672$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.6861837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed MOUZ17c3,611$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2218624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Vitality68c3,607$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.3522142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ35c3,493$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.1881843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ31c3,390$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.862,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc70…7f2abacked MOUZ22c3,377$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.433432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ15c3,283$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.572,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked MOUZ5c3,183$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8132930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Vitality63c3,152$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.4910047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed MOUZ27c3,152$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.242142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Vitality69c3,130$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.654548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Vitality68c3,069$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.125455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed MOUZ16c3,035$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.995749.1%28 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89c8…bb9ebacked MOUZ23c3,022$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.411942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed MOUZ31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9302045%9 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed Vitality69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9305129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Vitality67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9907537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked MOUZ31c2,997$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92923952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Vitality73c2,967$2,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.0641069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69aa…e28bbacked Vitality69c2,965$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.232755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Vitality68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.1810043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed MOUZ32c2,935$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.5511758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2908…789abacked Vitality68c2,820$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.432548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Vitality68c2,782$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.2547738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c0…8d4cbacked MOUZ24c2,752$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Vitality67c2,658$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.2926451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8212…6677backed Vitality69c2,565$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Vitality68c2,500$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed MOUZ30c2,500$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.9950833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ31c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.981,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4813…f7abbacked MOUZ31c2,453$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.43742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…776bbacked Vitality68c2,440$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed MOUZ16c2,406$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.386432.8%21 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf03e…1695backed MOUZ33c2,364$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ34c2,320$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.81,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Vitality68c2,293$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.7356732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ31c2,165$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67147147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe96e…f963backed Vitality69c2,155$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed MOUZ3c2,100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9443933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked MOUZ16c2,072$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.619038.9%35 W · 55 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.