TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof NIP, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$797,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$840,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 524 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Heroic49c93,930$46,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,704.3812348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed NIP54c40,934$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,00036450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Heroic46c40,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,60020354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Heroic49c35,000$16,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,009.0375652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked NIP59c30,684$18,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,103.4776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed NIP54c30,000$16,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,105.132240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed NIP42c25,000$10,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,449.9833359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic47c17,199$8,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,123.4542142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Heroic46c16,419$7,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,866.158043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed NIP58c12,000$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.9717162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed NIP35c10,945$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.371,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked NIP54c10,541$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,670.3914145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked Heroic46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.982458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Heroic49c9,879$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,038.7263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed NIP54c9,237$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed NIP33c8,255$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.052,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed NIP41c8,060$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.8275438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Heroic43c7,380$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,222.7716240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecf1…c33dbacked NIP46c7,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed NIP16c6,773$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.341,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NIP39c6,621$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.982,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c95…10f5backed NIP38c5,791$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.754551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic42c5,632$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.5981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked NIP46c5,591$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.3438032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb334…1ae1backed NIP61c5,546$3,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,405.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked NIP34c5,044$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.8866446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed NIP59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Heroic55c5,000$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.9937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8b5abacked NIP47c4,936$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked NIP51c4,900$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.987047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed NIP38c4,823$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85355043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Heroic55c4,798$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.3736440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic49c4,783$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,440.836,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Heroic41c4,591$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heroic63c4,431$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.477,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked NIP48c4,400$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1311,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic51c4,224$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.852,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed NIP51c4,218$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.8340542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic42c4,061$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.794,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Heroic63c4,005$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.7366851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed NIP36c3,988$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.718361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked NIP37c3,985$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.052,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked NIP39c3,924$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.332,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic59c3,827$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.675,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked NIP37c3,814$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.2122241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Heroic38c3,707$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.753,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic64c3,655$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.1964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Heroic47c3,633$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.455,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked NIP54c3,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8902642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Heroic33c3,457$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,304.822,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed NIP59c3,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Heroic71c3,275$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.37245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked NIP12c3,251$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.797617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Heroic54c3,013$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.7910056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed NIP57c3,001$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.295836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed NIP59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7709550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heroic47c2,947$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.7659839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed NIP54c2,777$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.0114846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb417…d931backed NIP57c2,750$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5706446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Heroic48c2,700$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4062,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Heroic60c2,588$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.956036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed NIP33c2,538$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.4388330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked NIP38c2,536$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.198052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed NIP62c2,418$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.4269445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked NIP48c2,410$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.813,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Heroic43c2,200$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2607454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed NIP46c2,116$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.0761837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Heroic48c2,000$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03222449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd255…4676backed NIP54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked Heroic48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04011844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed NIP54c1,957$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.783145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed NIP44c1,952$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.235,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bc0…7c44backed Heroic26c1,925$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+66.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed NIP58c1,866$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.392948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked NIP48c1,777$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.669341.9%39 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Heroic42c1,731$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.9216946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked NIP54c1,718$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.9438454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed Heroic47c1,709$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.7410956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Heroic63c1,653$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.9535839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Heroic47c1,600$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.7338841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed NIP17c1,587$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.738045%36 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc57…1d94backed NIP38c1,587$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Heroic34c1,534$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.6161034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked NIP61c1,520$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92626546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked NIP53c1,509$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed NIP51c1,500$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.72,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed NIP21c1,500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32012627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Heroic43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed NIP55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82568753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Heroic42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87021346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked NIP50c1,500$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed NIP37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.995,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Heroic45c1,451$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.0942154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked NIP54c1,450$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.9922266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed NIP68c1,446$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.3510359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5803…7a85backed NIP54c1,399$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.461850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked NIP68c1,379$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.673537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x829f…3486backed Heroic28c1,319$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.438833%29 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Heroic42c1,298$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.3640137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.