CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6db07b44b00ca4bf3b9dbfdfe0fd55e8a98b74d85129bad5e1578d84aba693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof NIP, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Heroic | 61c | 2,510$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.71 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Heroic | 72c | 2,320$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.38 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked NIP | 27c | 1,045$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 193 | 57%110 W · 83 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed NIP | 27c | 924.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.53 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked NIP | 30c | 907.75$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.48 | 488 | 45.7%223 W · 265 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 66c | 648.15$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.34 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Heroic | 73c | 546.33$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed NIP | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…1523backed NIP | 46c | 436.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed Heroic | 75c | 401.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 317 | 61.2%194 W · 123 L | +22.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…3543backed NIP | 28c | 353.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…d9dcbacked NIP | 32c | 350.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 656 | 50.3%330 W · 326 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Heroic | 69c | 322.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed NIP | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 538 | 50.6%272 W · 266 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed NIP | 25c | 310.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Heroic | 72c | 277.78$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Heroic | 71c | 275.44$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked NIP | 38c | 178.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed NIP | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed NIP | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Heroic | 68c | 112.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed NIP | 28c | 107.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Heroic | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NIP | 29c | 93.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed NIP | 32c | 88.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 160 | 38.1%61 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Heroic | 69c | 80.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked NIP | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Heroic | 73c | 50.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Heroic | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Heroic | 71c | 48.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Heroic | 77c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6343backed NIP | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Heroic | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 194 | 57.2%111 W · 83 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Heroic | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Heroic | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed Heroic | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Heroic | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 173 | 60.1%104 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Heroic | 66c | 15.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Heroic | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Heroic | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 PlayoffsHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)NIP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.