CS2 · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e4b86b2fb1f85fb7514c898eae6b078118df0ad263da237ee1995cd6e90c0f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54e0…b02cbacked Under	32c	922.95$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.16	1,650	32.7%540 W · 1,110 L	-49.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Over	55c	479.72$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.21	1,365	66.3%905 W · 460 L	+76.1wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under	48c	384$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.32	176	44.9%79 W · 97 L	+9.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Over	63c	379.05$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.49	3,225	51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L	+88.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1571…1a1cbacked Over	55c	366.15$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Over	51c	294.23$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.23	169	49.1%83 W · 86 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Over	64c	261$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.27	4,228	49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L	+59.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Under	51c	224.19$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.34	513	48.3%248 W · 265 L	+10.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Over	55c	210$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	286	51%146 W · 140 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Under	31c	200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	664	36.6%243 W · 421 L	-35.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Over	57c	197.96$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.52	2,214	47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Over	56c	142.25$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.63	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	41c	141.25$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.92	1,848	47.6%879 W · 969 L	-55.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Under	30c	137.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	153	37.3%57 W · 96 L	-8.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	57c	127$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.39	380	32.1%122 W · 258 L	-18.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Under	39c	125$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.15	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Under	55c	109.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under	38c	100.04$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.58	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b77…6ba1backed Under	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a1e…c023backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	181	48.6%88 W · 93 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	206	37.9%78 W · 128 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…3e8cbacked Over	51c	98.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.72	92	57.6%53 W · 39 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	49c	98.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.01	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under	49c	95.52$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.12	288	43.1%124 W · 164 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Over	50c	94.69$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.06	454	50.2%228 W · 226 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	54c	93.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.32	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	36c	85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5005…bcb1backed Over	61c	70$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	34c	56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	3,910	36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L	-197.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Over	64c	51$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.41	1,083	42.1%456 W · 627 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under	34c	49.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	100	31%31 W · 69 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	31c	44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	2,473	34.6%855 W · 1,618 L	-188.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under	33c	43$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	1,304	26.5%345 W · 959 L	-89.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Under	25c	41.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	526	45.1%237 W · 289 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	700	42.3%296 W · 404 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c03…31bbbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.4wins	-0.37per pick	48cpaid	-79%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 PlayoffsHeroic won
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)NIP won
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event