Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf90ef106d88827f8b4ca5b0b4ba2aa62aab7c2eb612e21bfcb043314edf0ae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 1c | 5,180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…2f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,946$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,913$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,897$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,746$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,739$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,684$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,178$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…e747backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 42c | 983.94$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 18c | 793.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 773.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 67c | 772.05$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 746.59$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 17c | 676.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 673.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 597.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 25c | 550.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed Yes | 44c | 534.7$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…7288backed Yes | 3c | 520.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 26c | 505.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0c…00f4backed Yes | 50c | 505.15$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 491.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 32c | 456.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 36c | 399.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 381.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 32c | 372.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 347.46$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 25c | 310.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 309.75$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 43c | 308.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 69c | 288.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 283.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 266.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 79c | 264.59$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 48c | 264.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 46c | 241.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…f76fbacked No | 62c | 240.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e0…389ebacked Yes | 17c | 223.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed No | 67c | 223.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 59c | 219.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 16c | 208.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 35c | 199.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed No | 66c | 198.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 21c | 188.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 53c | 187.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked No | 66c | 183.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 60c | 183.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 36c | 180.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…b843backed Yes | 56c | 179.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed No | 68c | 178.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a6…6a14backed Yes | 23c | 177.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…a012backed No | 58c | 173.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3ec2backed No | 59c | 170.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…8df6backed No | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…d4a8backed No | 67c | 164.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 41c | 158.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 58c | 158.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…ebd2backed No | 63c | 158.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6740…3cb8backed No | 64c | 156.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d64…44e1backed No | 64c | 156.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…02d1backed No | 64c | 155.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d9dabacked Yes | 33c | 153.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed No | 66c | 151.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2448…6e42backed No | 54c | 149.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed Yes | 37c | 149.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 9c | 148.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…c7cebacked No | 68c | 147.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…294ebacked Yes | 20c | 147.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…d17abacked No | 59c | 145.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 56c | 143.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…c5ebbacked No | 53c | 142.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 71c | 140.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed No | 66c | 139.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8347…a8d7backed No | 47c | 139.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…d621backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 135.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 37c | 134.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 19c | 133.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…902dbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…40debacked Yes | 40c | 129$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…70c2backed Yes | 49c | 123.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…805abacked Yes | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870b…3572backed No | 60c | 112.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 23c | 110.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 54c | 110.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 110.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes | 18c | 105.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 104.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 55c | 104.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 102.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.