Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38502206ab5dfa54830e0e1f1e2dc88156075944b35ed31784e1d94b91d49537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 35c | 29,930$10,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,395.29 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac3c…d637backed Yes | 41c | 21,700$8,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,897 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed No | 59c | 21,700$12,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,897 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 30c | 17,802$5,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,405.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…8db6backed No | 44c | 8,000$3,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,498.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…88a3backed Yes | 56c | 7,700$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,330.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed No | 52c | 4,242$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 57c | 3,223$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.22 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba7f…5036backed No | 45c | 1,741$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 56c | 1,536$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.52 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 1,374$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.37 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,337$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 57c | 1,273$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 1,213$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,206$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 78c | 1,198$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…1fd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 73c | 960.88$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.26 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 935.96$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.56 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 45c | 909.01$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 37c | 862.39$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 72c | 849.92$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 11c | 813.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 799.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed Yes | 56c | 793$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 68c | 720.04$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 40c | 658$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…c488backed Yes | 48c | 649.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f53…4bccbacked No | 65c | 628.74$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 72c | 590$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 539.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfa…fea1backed Yes | 49c | 509.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.41 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -8.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…5202backed No | 52c | 496.13$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed No | 62c | 488.38$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 44c | 485$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 483.13$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 52c | 472.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 471.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed Yes | 47c | 469.24$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…90d7backed No | 44c | 459.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…530ebacked No | 42c | 450.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 35c | 450$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6a93backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed No | 54c | 444.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 61c | 442.09$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 56c | 424.5$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 51c | 420.01$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 65c | 408.13$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…dff6backed No | 57c | 390.19$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 44c | 381$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 346.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed Yes | 53c | 342.13$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed No | 63c | 340$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 13c | 326.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…5e5ebacked Yes | 48c | 321.92$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 53c | 319.73$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.87 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…933bbacked No | 55c | 300.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…4cfbbacked Yes | 6c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 69c | 288.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…3cacbacked No | 46c | 288.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…4fffbacked No | 58c | 281.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 59c | 272.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…7b8ebacked Yes | 52c | 266.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 49c | 266.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 57c | 264.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 48c | 249.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…4a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 248.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 30c | 244.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 37c | 242.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 38c | 240$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 43c | 231.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 56c | 228$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…e526backed No | 71c | 226.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…8a92backed Yes | 19c | 225.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 23c | 225$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7c5fbacked No | 64c | 224.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…39b7backed No | 58c | 224.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 40c | 222.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8858backed Yes | 67c | 222.46$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed No | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 62c | 216$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +135%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed Yes | 32c | 210$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked No | 53c | 207.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed No | 72c | 205.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…3edcbacked No | 50c | 200.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…bc47backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa5…23d2backed Yes | 40c | 198.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 17c | 196.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 65c | 196.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 194$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked No | 52c | 193.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…ebd2backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…579fbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…f1adbacked No | 52c | 192.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…aababacked No | 75c | 187.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.